# United States vs Paraguay > World Cup · Kickoff Sat 13 Jun 2026, 01:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35773) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** United States 4–1 Paraguay ## Model verdict - **United States win:** 33% - **Draw:** 42% - **Paraguay win:** 25% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Draw-heavy model favours parity despite US Elo edge ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 13 Jun 2026, 01:00 UTC as part of the World Cup[^fact-1]. The fixture sits inside the tournament environment where short-term outcomes have outsized consequences; the supplied facts do not include a venue or host-city detail, so the only timing certainty is the kickoff timestamp above[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model assigns a clear lean to a stalemate: Draw 42%, Home 33%, Away 25%[^fact-2]. That profile signals a contest the model views as tight rather than blowout. Separately, an Elo differential of +100 points applies in favour of the home side once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. The coexistence of a non-trivial Elo edge and a draw-favoured model probability implies the model sees the home-side edge as insufficient to convert into a pre-match favourite — it reduces the likelihood of an away win but leaves the draw as the single largest outcome. ## Personnel The supplied facts contain no player-level or availability details; there is therefore no basis in the available dataset to name in-form performers or absentees. Any personnel judgements fall outside the given facts and have been omitted for that reason. ## Where the model sees value The model output (Home 33% / Draw 42% / Away 25%) is the analytical starting point for market comparison[^fact-2]. Markets analysed against that model totalled 3 distinct markets in the supplied facts[^fact-4]. The combined signal is twofold: - The largest single probability is the draw at 42%[^fact-2], so any market that materially underprices draws relative to that percentage would be the primary source of model-identified edge. The dataset indicates three market streams were reviewed against the model, so this is the principal axis for discrepancy hunting[^fact-4]. - The home side carries an Elo cushion of +100 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3], which pushes the model away from treating the home side as a long shot but not enough to make it the modal outcome[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Markets that price the home win significantly below the model's 33% — or conversely overprice the away team well above 25% — are the secondary places to look within the three markets analysed[^fact-4][^fact-2]. Because the fact-set does not include the actual market odds, this briefing refrains from inventing prices; instead it records where the model would expect to find edges given the probabilities and the number of markets scanned: primary focus on draws, secondary focus on whether markets are overstating the away chance relative to the model's 25% and understating the home chance relative to the model's 33%[^fact-2][^fact-4]. ## Verdict The model leans to parity: a draw is the single most likely outcome at 42%, while the home side carries a modest advantage reflected in a +100 Elo differential once home advantage is considered[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Three markets were compared to the model in the supplied analysis, making the draw the principal market-discrepancy target to verify against those prices[^fact-4][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 13 Jun 2026, 01:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 33% / Draw 42% / Away 25% (source: model; confidence mid, 9 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — USA vs PAR — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .