# Haiti vs Scotland > World Cup · Kickoff Sun 14 Jun 2026, 01:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35776) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Haiti 0–1 Scotland ## Model verdict - **Haiti win:** 28% - **Draw:** 16% - **Scotland win:** 56% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Haiti's hot streak versus Scotland's heavy-scoring side in World Cup ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 14 Jun 2026, 01:00 UTC, a World Cup group-stage fixture that will settle immediate momentum for both teams[^fact-1]. The match carries standard tournament pressure: a single result that shapes the early standings and the approaches teams take for subsequent fixtures[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Form lines pull in two different directions. Haiti arrive unbeaten in their last two matches — two wins, translating to 3.00 points per game — and have averaged 1.50 goals scored while conceding 0.00 across those outings[^fact-4]. Scotland’s recent two-match sample is more fractured: a win and a loss that net 1.50 points per game, but with a much higher scoring variance, averaging 3.00 goals for and 2.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model and Elo signal a clear edge for one side. The predictive model gives the away side a 56% chance, with the home side at 28% and draws at 16%[^fact-2]. That model verdict is reinforced by an Elo-based comparison which, after applying home advantage, puts a 100-point differential in favour of the visitors[^fact-3]. The model’s confidence is sizeable: a 28 percentage-point gap between the model favourite and the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. Taken together, the analytics picture is consistent: Scotland are the statistical favourite on both model probability and Elo merit, while Haiti’s recent unbeaten run complicates the narrative but sits against a wider rating deficit[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. ## Personnel Spotlights should be drawn from team-level performance rather than individual names, as only aggregate data are provided. Haiti’s attacking and defensive output in the last two matches has been efficient — averaging 1.50 goals scored and zero conceded per game — which frames them as a side currently delivering tidy, low-friction results[^fact-4]. Scotland’s recent matches show a heavy involvement in goals, both for and against, with 3.00 scored and 2.50 conceded per match, which frames them as a higher-variance, higher-output side[^fact-5]. No specific individual availability, injury lists or absences were supplied among the facts; the only personnel-relevant signals available are these team-level scoring and defensive aggregates and the model/Elo assessments cited above[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3]. That limits any attempt to identify named in-form players or to quantify the impact of particular absences. ## Where the model sees value Only three market outcomes were compared against the model in the supplied data[^fact-7]. The clearest quantified edge is on the total goals market: the model prices Under 2.5 goals at 54%, while the market (Unibet) posts an Over/Under 2.5 line at 1.96 — an implied market probability slightly favouring Over — yielding a model edge of 3.4 percentage points (noted as low confidence)[^fact-6]. This edge dovetails with Haiti’s recent clean-sheet run and modest goals-for rate across two matches, and with the possibility that Scotland’s goals may be concentrated in one fixture rather than consistently spread[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Beyond that specific O/U angle, the model’s outcome probabilities themselves are a value signal: the model assigns 56% to the away win versus 28% to the home side and 16% to a draw, a distribution that should be the starting point for any market comparison[^fact-2]. The provided market comparison set is limited to three markets in total, so any extrapolation beyond the named O/U pick relies on further market data not supplied here[^fact-7][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the away side, giving Scotland a 56% chance versus Haiti’s 28% and a 16% draw probability; that sits alongside a 100-point Elo advantage for Scotland after home adjustment[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The clearest market-model mismatch in the supplied facts is a modest edge on Under 2.5 goals — model 54% versus the market price at Unibet — though that edge is flagged as low confidence[^fact-6][^fact-7]. Overall, the analytics picture is: Scotland the statistical favourite, Haiti arriving on a small but clean run, and the main, tradeable divergence between model and market in the provided data is the Under 2.5 goals projection[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 14 Jun 2026, 01:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 28% / Draw 16% / Away 56% (source: model; confidence high, 28 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HAI vs SCO — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HAI recent form** — WW last 2: 2-0-0 (W-D-L), 3.00 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 0.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SCO recent form** — WL last 2: 1-0-1 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 3.00 goals scored / 2.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 1.96 at Unibet, edge 3.4 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .