# Philadelphia Union vs Columbus Crew > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35786) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Philadelphia Union 1–1 Columbus Crew ## Model verdict - **Philadelphia Union win:** 69% - **Draw:** 24% - **Columbus Crew win:** 8% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and an Elo edge point to a tight, low-scoring affair ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. This is a domestic regular-season fixture with clear home/away status reflected throughout the model outputs[^fact-1][^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent numbers draw a sharp contrast. Philadelphia Union have produced LDDWL in their last 10 matches (1-2-7), managing 0.50 points per game and averaging 0.90 goals scored while conceding 1.70 per match[^fact-4]. Columbus Crew arrive with a steadier sequence, WWLDW in their last 10 (3-3-4), 1.20 points per game, 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On Elo, Philadelphia carry a notable advantage: a +100-point differential after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That Elo edge helps explain why the model strongly prefers the home side despite Philadelphia’s poorer recent raw form[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Availability questions matter here. Philadelphia will be without Andre Blake due to injury[^fact-9]. Columbus will be missing Malte Amundsen through injury[^fact-10]. Those are the two named absences in the supplied facts; their presence or absence is built into the model outputs cited below[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model produces a dominant home probability of 69%, with draw 24% and away 8% — a large margin between first and runner-up and high confidence in the verdict[^fact-2]. Against the market, three value edges stand out across the analysed markets (3 markets compared)[^fact-11]. - Match Winner — Home: the model’s home probability is 67% versus a market price of 2.63 at 888Sport, producing an edge of 29.0 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Goals O/U 2.5 — Under: the model assigns 54% to under 2.5 while Pinnacle quotes 2.20, an edge of 8.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. - Both Teams to Score — No: model probability 49% versus a market price of 2.45 at Betfair, an edge of 7.8 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-8]. These three market comparisons are the only ones documented in the supplied facts and form the explicit catalogue of model-market discrepancies for this fixture[^fact-11]. The combination of a substantial Elo advantage for the home side and the home probability baked into the model helps push the Home Match Winner figure well above market-implied levels[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6]. Concurrently, the model’s lower expected scoring output supports both under 2.5 and the single-goal/no-both-scores scenarios[^fact-4][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is firmly toward the home side: Home 69% / Draw 24% / Away 8%, a clear favourite with a 45 percentage-point gap to the next outcome and high confidence in that gap[^fact-2]. Given Philadelphia’s Elo edge at home and the model’s lower-scoring profile for the match, the statistical picture favours the home win in a tight, low-scoring game[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 69% / Draw 24% / Away 8% (source: model; confidence high, 45 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PHI vs COL — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PHI recent form** — LDDWL last 10: 1-2-7 (W-D-L), 0.50 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **COL recent form** — WWLDW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 67% vs market price 2.63 at 888Sport, edge 29.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.20 at Pinnacle, edge 8.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.45 at Betfair, edge 7.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **PHI key absence** — Andre Blake out (injury). [^fact-10]: **COL key absence** — Malte Amundsen out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .