# Orlando City vs Atlanta United > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35787) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Orlando City 1–1 Atlanta United ## Model verdict - **Orlando City win:** 50% - **Draw:** 32% - **Atlanta United win:** 18% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home favourites on paper, market underestimates tight scoreline ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 16 May 2026 at 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. The model places a clear home tilt — Home 50% / Draw 32% / Away 18% — giving the home side the single largest probability slice[^fact-2]. That distribution sets expectations: the home team is favoured, but a draw occupies a sizeable one-third of outcomes[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint two teams with similarly poor returns over their last 10 matches: both records are 2-1-7 (W-D-L) and both sides are averaging just 0.70 points per game over that stretch[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Offensive returns differ subtly: the home team has averaged 1.20 goals scored per match while conceding 2.90, producing a markedly negative goal balance[^fact-4]. The visitors have been slimmer in attack, averaging 0.90 goals per match, and better in defence relative to the hosts, conceding 1.70 per match[^fact-5]. The Elo picture gives the home side a material edge once venue is factored in: an Elo differential of +100 points with home advantage applied favours the hosts on balance[^fact-3]. That gap helps reconcile the model’s 50% home probability with the low recent form numbers: Elo still sees the home side as superior despite both teams’ slump[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Personnel notes are light in the supplied facts, but one clear absence stands out: Steven Alzate is out injured for the visitors[^fact-8]. The model and market edges shown later will reflect how that absence impacts midfield structure and attacking output, given the visitors already average fewer goals per game than the hosts in recent matches[^fact-5]. No further named in-form players or additional absences were provided in the available facts. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies two clear market inefficiencies compared to existing Betfair prices. First, the model favours the Under in Goals O/U 2.5 at 54% while the market price sits at 2.70 on Betfair — an edge of 17.3 percentage points, flagged as high confidence by the model[^fact-6]. Second, the model assigns 49% probability to "No" in Both Teams to Score while the market prices that line at 2.88 on Betfair — a 13.9 percentage-point edge, also rated high confidence[^fact-7]. These two signals are coherent with the on-field numbers: both teams are producing underwhelming attack figures over the last 10 matches (home 1.20 goals, away 0.90 goals per match), and the home side’s heavy goals-against figure (2.90 conceded) suggests matches have been prone to swings but not necessarily high aggregate scoring when opponent output is low[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model compared three markets against the market when making these assessments[^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side as the single likeliest outcome (50%), but the draw is a meaningful alternative at 32% and the away win is remote at 18%[^fact-2]; parity in recent points and the visitors’ lower scoring profile combined with the absence of Steven Alzate offer the clearest explanation for why the model prices lower aggregate scoring and a notable chance of one side failing to score[^fact-5][^fact-8][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 50% / Draw 32% / Away 18% (source: model; confidence high, 18 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ORL vs ATL — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ORL recent form** — LWLDL last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 2.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ATL recent form** — WLLLL last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.70 at Betfair, edge 17.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.88 at Betfair, edge 13.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **ATL key absence** — Steven Alzate out (injury). [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .