# New York RB vs New York City > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35788) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** New York RB 1–1 New York City ## Model verdict - **New York RB win:** 62% - **Draw:** 28% - **New York City win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low-scoring lean shape the odds ## The stage This Saturday’s derby kicks off at 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer, a fixture that carries local bragging rights and points in a tight week of the table[^fact-1]. The model gives the home side a clear probability edge of 62% to win, with the draw at 28% and an away win at 10%[^fact-2]. That market-style certainty is backed by an Elo differential of +100 in favour of the hosts after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Both sides arrive with identical 10-match records recorded as three wins, three draws and four losses (W-D-L) and the same points-per-game figure of 1.20 over that span[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The nuance lies in attacking and defensive output: the home team average 1.60 goals scored and concede 2.50 per match, while the visitors average 1.90 scored and concede 1.60 per match[^fact-4][^fact-5]. That juxtaposition explains the model’s confidence: hosts have the Elo edge and concede at a higher rate, but the visitors have been slightly more incisive going forward, creating a contest between the home advantage and relative defensive solidity[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Availability is simplified by two headline absences. The hosts will be without Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting through injury[^fact-9]. The visitors are missing Aiden O'Neill with injury as well[^fact-10]. Those are the primary personnel notes provided; the data does not supply further squad details or rotations. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies three specific edges versus the market across the three analysed markets[^fact-11]. First, the clearest single-market edge is the home Match Winner: the model assigns a 58% probability to a home victory against a market price of 2.70 at 1xbet, an edge of 21.1 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Second, the model favours Under 2.5 goals with a 54% probability against a market price of 2.55 at Betfair, an edge of 15.2 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Third, the model gives a 49% probability to "No" on Both Teams to Score against a market price of 2.63 at Betfair, an edge of 10.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-8]. Those three value lines map coherently to the underlying numbers: the home side’s higher concession rate suggests volatility that the model nonetheless resolves in favour of a home result when paired with the 100-point Elo advantage[^fact-4][^fact-3]. At the same time, the model’s Under 2.5 and "No" BTTS lean reflect a projection that this particular fixture will not produce high scoring despite the home side’s average goals conceded figure, a nuance carried through in the probabilities above[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model’s overall verdict is emphatic: home win is the most likely outcome at 62%, with a 34 percentage-point margin to the nearest runner-up (draw) reflecting high confidence[^fact-2]. The secondary systemic lean is toward a lower-scoring game and the possibility that both teams will not score, as shown by the model edges in Under 2.5 goals and No on Both Teams to Score[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 62% / Draw 28% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 34 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NYR vs NYC — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NYR recent form** — LDLDW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 2.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NYC recent form** — LDLLD last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 58% vs market price 2.70 at 1xbet, edge 21.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 15.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.63 at Betfair, edge 10.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **NYR key absence** — Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting out (injury). [^fact-10]: **NYC key absence** — Aiden O'Neill out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .