# New England vs Minnesota United > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35790) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** New England 2–1 Minnesota United ## Model verdict - **New England win:** 26% - **Draw:** 38% - **Minnesota United win:** 36% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side priced for upset despite narrow model gap ## The stage This match kicks off on Sat 16 May 2026 at 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. The fixture sits in a compressed MLS calendar where small margins matter; the model gives a non-home result the edge, but the certainty is low[^fact-2]. Markets analysed against the model total three separate markets[^fact-11]. ## Form & momentum Recent form reads differently depending on the metric: New England have produced DWWWW over their last nine matches, returning a points-per-game rate of 1.78 and averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Minnesota United arrive on a LWWWW sequence over their last ten, with a 1.70 points-per-game figure and a slimmer goals profile of 1.10 scored and 1.40 conceded per match[^fact-5]. On raw ratings the Elo differential favors the home side by 100 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3], but the model probabilities show a tight three-way picture — Home 26%, Draw 38% and Away 36% — with the model flagging low confidence and only a 2 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That combination suggests form lines are close enough that small variances on matchday could swing the outcome[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Key absences shift the personnel equation. New England will be without Leonardo Campana, who is out injured[^fact-9]. Minnesota United are missing Carlos Harvey through injury[^fact-10]. Those are the two heaviest absences explicitly noted for the match[^fact-9][^fact-10]. Beyond those names, the available facts do not list additional starters or tactical tweaks, so assessments must lean on form and model output rather than detailed lineup intelligence[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights three targeted edges against market prices across the analysed markets[^fact-11]: - Abroad Match Winner: the model prices the away win at 47% versus a market price of 3.25 on Dafabet, an implied market probability materially below the model and producing an edge of 16.5 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. - Goals Under 2.5: the model prefers under 2.5 goals at 54% while the market price at 10Bet sits at 2.10, leaving a model–market edge of 6.8 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-7]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model rates ‘no’ at 49% against a Betfair price of 2.30, an edge of 5.2 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-8]. Each pick is grounded in the model’s probability set and the three markets compared; the bookmaker divergences are explicit for the three markets under review[^fact-11]. The largest single discrepancy is the away-match winner line, where the model’s 47% probability contrasts with a market price implying a far lower chance — that is the most pronounced edge and is tagged high confidence by the model[^fact-6]. The two goals-related calls sit closer to coin‑flip territory but lean toward a tighter, lower-scoring match given the model percentages and the relative defensive numbers in recent results[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is toward a non-home outcome with the away side notably overpriced in one market, but confidence is explicitely tempered — the model shows a Home 26% / Draw 38% / Away 36% split with low confidence and only a two-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. This is a narrow edge environment where absences such as Leonardo Campana for New England and Carlos Harvey for Minnesota United matter to specific matchups but do not, in the supplied facts, overturn the model’s probability topology[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 26% / Draw 38% / Away 36% (source: model; confidence low, 2 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NER vs MIN — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NER recent form** — DWWWW last 9: 5-1-3 (W-D-L), 1.78 PPG, 1.89 goals scored / 1.33 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **MIN recent form** — LWWWW last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 47% vs market price 3.25 at Dafabet, edge 16.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.10 at 10Bet, edge 6.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.30 at Betfair, edge 5.2 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **NER key absence** — Leonardo Campana out (injury). [^fact-10]: **MIN key absence** — Carlos Harvey out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .