# DC United vs St. Louis City > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35791) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** DC United 1–1 St. Louis City ## Model verdict - **DC United win:** 19% - **Draw:** 50% - **St. Louis City win:** 31% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Market misprices draw and under 2.5; model prefers away ## The stage This is a Major League Soccer fixture kicking off Sat 16 May 2026 at 23:30 UTC — a night kick with a full competitive context attached to it as the calendar turns through spring fixtures[^fact-1]. The model gives a clear probabilistic map for the result: Home 19%, Draw 50%, Away 31% — the draw is the single most likely outcome and sits well ahead of the home win probability by a wide margin, with the model reporting a 19 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome as a measure of confidence[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form profiles underline why the model leans toward a cagey outcome. DC United’s last 10 matches read W D D L L — an effective 3-3-4 (W-D-L) split that equates to 1.20 points per game while scoring 1.10 goals and conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-4]. St. Louis City’s short run is less encouraging: across nine matches the sequence sits LLDDW — a 1-3-5 (W-D-L) record translating to 0.67 points per game, with 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those raw trends align with the Elo framing: DC United enter with a 100-point Elo edge after home advantage is applied, a margin that formally favours the hosts on rating alone[^fact-3]. The combination of a modest DCU Elo advantage and the two teams’ low scoring and elevated concession rates creates the recipe for a draw being the single likeliest state of affairs under the model[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel No player-level form or availability data is supplied for this fixture, so personnel-level judgments cannot be made from the supplied facts. The only usable signals are team-level output and defensive records: DC United are producing 1.10 goals per match while conceding 1.50[^fact-4]; St. Louis City are producing 1.00 and conceding 1.78 per match[^fact-5]. Those figures imply matches that tilt toward low-to-medium goal counts and that any personnel impact would likely show up through goal-conceding rather than prolific scoring, but specific names and absences are not contained in the provided dataset and therefore cannot be referenced here. ## Where the model sees value Three market comparisons were analysed against the model to identify edges[^fact-9]. The most emphatic value signal is on the draw in Match Winner: the model assigns a 37% probability to the draw while the market price at Betfair implies a lower chance via odds of 3.70, producing a 10.0 percentage-point edge and labelled with high confidence[^fact-6]. This is consistent with the model’s overall 50% Draw probability, which itself is the mode of the outcome distribution[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Second, the under on Goals O/U 2.5 shows value: the model’s probability for under 2.5 is 54% against a market price of 2.13 at Pinnacle, generating a 7.4 percentage-point edge with mid confidence[^fact-7]. That signal tracks with both teams’ goal averages — 1.10 and 1.00 goals scored per match respectively — and elevated concession rates that have not been matched by strong scoring output, which pushes aggregate match totals toward fewer goals rather than shootouts[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7]. Third, the away win in Match Winner carries a model probability of 40% versus a market price of 3.03 at 1xbet, leaving a 6.6 percentage-point edge (mid confidence)[^fact-8]. That pick is notable because it runs counter to the Elo-applied home edge; the model’s own simulation output nonetheless surfaces the away side as significantly more likely than market prices reflect, even while the model’s single highest-probability outcome remains the draw[^fact-3][^fact-8]. All three value plays come from a set of three market comparisons that were analysed against the model outputs[^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is toward a low-scoring stalemate: the draw is the single likeliest result and surfaces as the clearest market inefficiency, while under 2.5 goals aligns with the defensive and low-output profiles shown by both teams; the model nevertheless flags a substantive away probability that markets underprice[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 16 May 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 19% / Draw 50% / Away 31% (source: model; confidence high, 19 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — DCU vs LOU — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **DCU recent form** — WDDLL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **LOU recent form** — LLDDW last 9: 1-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.67 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.78 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Draw in Match Winner — model 37% vs market price 3.70 at Betfair, edge 10.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.13 at Pinnacle, edge 7.4 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 40% vs market price 3.03 at 1xbet, edge 6.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .