# San Diego vs Cincinnati > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 01:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35796) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** San Diego 3–3 Cincinnati ## Model verdict - **San Diego win:** 53% - **Draw:** 24% - **Cincinnati win:** 24% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model favors San Diego but expects a low-scoring affair ## The stage Kickoff is Sun 17 May 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. The fixture is presented as a home match for San Diego[^fact-3] and the model gives San Diego the single largest probability among outcomes, with Home 53% / Draw 24% / Away 24%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum San Diego arrive with a troubling sequence: LLLLL in their last five and 3-2-5 across the past ten, producing 1.10 points per game and averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Cincinnati’s recent tail shows more resilience — WDDDL over the last five and 3-3-4 across ten, at 1.20 points per game with 1.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s Elo view still favours San Diego by a clear margin after applying home advantage: an Elo differential of +100 for San Diego over Cincinnati[^fact-3]. That gap helps explain why the model leans to the home side despite San Diego’s poorer recent results[^fact-2]. ## Personnel San Diego will be without Andrés Reyes (injury), a notable absence for the home side[^fact-9]. Cincinnati are missing Teenage Hadebe (injury), their listed key absence[^fact-10]. No further squad details are available in the supplied facts; analysis therefore focuses on how those two confirmed absences alter stability rather than on specific tactical tweaks[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Three systematic edges emerge when the model is compared to available market prices across the analysed markets[^fact-11]. First, the clearest statistical discrepancy is on total goals: the model prefers Under 2.5 goals at 54% while Pinnacle’s market price implies a much lower model probability — the edge is 26.1 percentage points versus Pinnacle’s 3.54 price[^fact-6]. Second, the model shows value on Both Teams to Score landing on No at 49% versus Betfair’s pricing, yielding a 19.3-point edge against Betfair’s 3.40 price[^fact-7]. Both of those lines point to a low-scoring game with limited joint attacking returns from both sides, consonant with the teams’ recent goals conceded and scored rates[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Third, there is a smaller, mid-confidence edge on the Away match-winner: the model assigns Cincinnati a 35% chance while Betfair prices the away outcome at 3.50, producing a 6.6-point model edge[^fact-8]. The model still ranks Home as the single likeliest result overall, but that narrower market edge on the Away outcome flags divergence worth noting given Cincinnati’s slightly better recent points-per-game and goals-scored figures[^fact-5][^fact-2]. All three value calls are drawn from the three markets compared against the model[^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans to San Diego as the marginal favourite, driven by an Elo edge of +100 with home advantage applied and a Home probability of 53% in the model’s output[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Nevertheless, the clearest market-model dislocations are defensive: Under 2.5 goals and No on Both Teams to Score carry the largest edges, suggesting the statistical view prefers a tight, low-scoring outcome even as the model gives San Diego the overall edge[^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 01:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 53% / Draw 24% / Away 24% (source: model; confidence high, 29 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SDL vs CIN — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SDL recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CIN recent form** — WDDDL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.54 at Pinnacle, edge 26.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 3.40 at Betfair, edge 19.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — Away in Match Winner — model 35% vs market price 3.50 at Betfair, edge 6.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **SDL key absence** — Andrés Reyes  out (injury). [^fact-10]: **CIN key absence** — Teenage Hadebe out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .