# SJ Earthquakes vs Dallas > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 17 May 2026, 02:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35797) **Status:** Live ## Model verdict - **SJ Earthquakes win:** 11% - **Draw:** 15% - **Dallas win:** 74% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.80 | 888Sport | 54% | +18.7 pp | | btts | No | 2.70 | Betfair | 49% | +11.6 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Hot Earthquakes Favoured as Dallas Arrive Looking Patchy ## The stage San Jose Earthquakes host this Major League Soccer fixture with kickoff scheduled for Sun 17 May 2026, 02:30 UTC.[^fact-1] The fixture is presented in the model as a strong away-favouring game, with the model assigning Home 11% / Draw 15% / Away 74% probabilities and a high confidence gap of 59 percentage points to the runner-up outcome.[^fact-2] ## Form & momentum San Jose enter the game on a torrid run: WWWWW across the last 10 competitive appearances, recorded as 9-0-1 (W-D-L), delivering 2.70 points per game while averaging 2.50 goals scored and conceding 0.60 per match.[^fact-4] That hot streak is reflected in an Elo edge of +100 points for San Jose once home advantage is applied, a sizable differential in the Elo frame.[^fact-3] Dallas have produced a markedly different sequence: LLDDW over their last 10, shown as 3-4-3 (W-D-L), worth 1.30 points per game, with 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match.[^fact-5] The juxtaposition is clear: San Jose’s recent output is both higher-scoring and more defensively resolute on the numbers supplied, while Dallas present a middling return in both directions.[^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Personnel The most explicit personnel note in the dataset is that Timo Werner is absent for San Jose through injury.[^fact-8] The loss of Werner is the single named availability detail provided and is therefore the heaviest confirmed absence listed in the facts.[^fact-8] No other individual player names, positional breakdowns or manager changes are available in the supplied facts, so personnel assessments must stay focused on the documented absence and the team-level output already cited: San Jose’s low conceded rate and high goals-per-game figure, and Dallas’s higher concession rate and lower points yield.[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-8] ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model in the analysis.[^fact-9] Two clear value edges emerge from the model vs market comparisons. - Under in Goals O/U 2.5 shows model support at 54% against a market price of 2.80 at 888Sport, producing an edge of 18.7 percentage points and flagged with high confidence by the model.[^fact-6] - No in Both Teams to Score is also highlighted: the model assigns 49% to that outcome versus a market price of 2.70 at Betfair, an edge of 11.6 percentage points and likewise described with high confidence.[^fact-7] Both edges align with the match-level numbers: San Jose’s defensive record in the supplied form — 0.60 conceded per match — and Dallas’s 1.50 conceded per match make low-scoring outcomes and single-team clean sheets plausible on the supplied data, which is the basis for the model’s stated edges.[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-7] ## Verdict The model leans heavily to the away side with a 74% probability, a pronounced preference backed by a 59 percentage-point confidence gap to the next-best outcome, and an Elo margin of +100 points in favour of the home side once home advantage is applied — a combination that, in the supplied facts, frames this as a strongly model-favoured outcome despite San Jose’s excellent short-term form and the listed absence.[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 17 May 2026, 02:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 11% / Draw 15% / Away 74% (source: model; confidence high, 59 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SJE vs DAL — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SJE recent form** — WWWWW last 10: 9-0-1 (W-D-L), 2.70 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 0.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DAL recent form** — LLDDW last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.80 at 888Sport, edge 18.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.70 at Betfair, edge 11.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **SJE key absence** — Timo Werner out (injury). [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .