# St. Louis City vs Austin > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35800) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Louis City 3–0 Austin ## Model verdict - **St. Louis City win:** 67% - **Draw:** 20% - **Austin win:** 13% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### St. Louis slight favourites as model backs a tight, low-scoring affair ## The stage This MLS evening kick-off arrives on Sat 23 May 2026 at 18:45 UTC, a fixture that will carry regular-season weight and shape mid-table dynamics as the calendar turns toward summer fixtures[^fact-1]. The model assigns a clear home tilt, signalling a contest that looks more likely to be settled narrowly rather than blown open[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results paint St. Louis City as the side with the steadier short-term return: DWWLL across their last 10 matches, a 3-3-4 record that translates to 1.20 points per game and 1.20 goals scored while conceding 1.60 per match[^fact-4]. Austin have a patchier run, LLDWW in their last 10, a 2-4-4 record worth 1.00 point per game with 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The Elo differential, after applying home advantage, gives St. Louis a 123-point edge — a meaningful margin in Elo terms and consistent with the model’s home preference[^fact-3]. That gap helps explain the model’s probabilities: home 67%, draw 20%, away 13%, with the model reporting high confidence and a 47 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel St. Louis rely on the in-form spark of Marcel Hartel, who has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist in his last four appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.90 across that run[^fact-8]. Austin’s primary outlet has been Myrto Uzuni, with 3 goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.23 over that sequence[^fact-9]. Availability issues sharpen the picture: St. Louis will be without Conrad Wallem due to suspension after 427 minutes in the recent run, a loss to the squad’s rotation depth[^fact-10]. Austin are missing Brendan Hines-Ike through injury, who had accumulated 314 minutes in the recent stretch prior to his absence[^fact-11]. Those absences are the clearest personnel headlines on both sides and feed into the expected balance between attack and defensive stability for each team. ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed against the model total three separate offerings, and two clear edges emerge[^fact-12]. The model favours the under on Goals O/U 2.5 at 54% probability versus the market price available at Pinnacle of 2.43, creating a modeled edge of 13.2 percentage points and described with high confidence[^fact-6]. That aligns with both clubs’ scoring and conceding rates — modest goals-for numbers for St. Louis and Austin and a defensive tilt in recent matches[^fact-4][^fact-5]. On Match Winner, the model’s home probability is 71% versus a market price of 1.70 at 1xbet, producing an 11.8 percentage-point edge and again rated high confidence by the model[^fact-7]. This mirrors the Elo advantage and the model’s overall verdict, reinforcing that the market underprices the home side relative to the model’s assessment[^fact-3][^fact-2]. Those two edges — Under 2.5 and Home — are the ones flagged by the model across the three markets compared, and both reflect a view that the match will be controlled rather than free-scoring[^fact-12][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side with a 67% match-winner probability and high confidence, supported by a 123-point Elo edge and the comparative recent forms of both teams[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. The same projection favours a low-scoring game, with the under 2.5 goals showing the clearest market value in the model comparison[^fact-6]. Keep an eye on Hartel and Uzuni for moments that could tilt a tight contest, and note the absences of Wallem and Hines-Ike for their respective impacts on squad balance[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 67% / Draw 20% / Away 13% (source: model; confidence high, 47 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LOU vs ATX — Elo differential +123 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LOU recent form** — DWWLL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ATX recent form** — LLDWW last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.43 at Pinnacle, edge 13.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 71% vs market price 1.70 at 1xbet, edge 11.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **LOU in-form player** — Marcel Hartel — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.90. [^fact-9]: **ATX in-form player** — Myrto Uzuni — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.23. [^fact-10]: **LOU key absence** — Conrad Wallem out (suspension), 427 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **ATX key absence** — Brendan Hines-Ike out (injury), 314 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .