# St. Louis City vs Austin > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35800) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **St. Louis City win:** 66% - **Draw:** 21% - **Austin win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.43 | Pinnacle | 54% | +13.2 pp | | h2h | Home | 1.70 | 1xbet | 71% | +11.8 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home advantage and defensive edge tilt the tie to St. Louis City ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. This is a home fixture for the first-named side and carries the usual regular-season stakes for points and position in the table; no further competition detail is provided in the supplied facts[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model hands the home side a clear quantitative edge: Home 66% / Draw 21% / Away 12%, with a stated high-confidence margin and a 45 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That verdict aligns with an Elo differential of +123 points in favour of the home side after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. Recent form paints a similar picture. The home side’s last 10 matches read DWWLL, a 3-3-4 record with 1.20 points per game and an average of 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive with LLDWW in their last 10, a 2-4-4 record with 1.00 points per game and an average of 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those underlying scoring and concession numbers suggest the home team combines marginally higher attacking output with a cleaner defensive record in recent matches[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel On the home side, Marcel Hartel is the standout in form: 1 goal and 1 assist across his last four appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.90[^fact-8]. That recent output is a notable creative and goal threat in the limited sample available[^fact-8]. For the visitors, Myrto Uzuni is the clear in-form outlet, with 3 goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.23[^fact-9]. Uzuni’s scoring run is the visitors’ primary attacking impetus and the focal point to monitor when assessing their chance creation[^fact-9]. Availability issues matter. The home side will be without Conrad Wallem through suspension; he contributed 427 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a significant chunk of minutes from the home midfield rotation[^fact-10]. The visiting side will be missing Brendan Hines-Ike due to injury; he accounted for 314 minutes in the recent run and his absence represents a defensive disruption for the visitors[^fact-11]. Both absences carry weight given the minutes lost in recent matches[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Two market comparisons against the model stand out. First, the model rates Under 2.5 goals at 54%, while the market price referenced (Pinnacle) sits at 2.43, producing an edge of 13.2 percentage points in favour of the Under[^fact-6]. Second, the model’s Match Winner output gives the home side 71% probability while the market price cited (1xbet) is 1.70, yielding an 11.8 percentage-point edge to backing the home win[^fact-7]. These two contrasts are the top edges identified across the three markets analysed in the supplied facts[^fact-12][^fact-6][^fact-7]. Both value angles reflect the same underlying signals: a model-quantified home advantage and a conservative scoring expectation. The Elo and recent defensive numbers support a lean toward a lower-scoring home victory rather than an open, high-scoring contest[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward a home win, reinforced by a +123 Elo edge and superior recent defensive metrics, while also flagging a modestly lower scoring profile for the match; Home (66%) remains the primary projection with Under 2.5 goals as the complementary structural view[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 18:45 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 66% / Draw 21% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 45 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LOU vs ATX — Elo differential +123 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LOU recent form** — DWWLL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ATX recent form** — LLDWW last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.43 at Pinnacle, edge 13.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 71% vs market price 1.70 at 1xbet, edge 11.8 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **LOU in-form player** — Marcel Hartel — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.90. [^fact-9]: **ATX in-form player** — Myrto Uzuni — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.23. [^fact-10]: **LOU key absence** — Conrad Wallem out (suspension), 427 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **ATX key absence** — Brendan Hines-Ike out (injury), 314 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . 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