# Cincinnati vs Orlando City > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35802) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Cincinnati 6–2 Orlando City ## Model verdict - **Cincinnati win:** 32% - **Draw:** 19% - **Orlando City win:** 49% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight, low-scoring contest expected as Orlando edges Cincinnati ## The stage This is a Major League Soccer fixture kicking off Sat 23 May 2026 at 23:30 UTC. [^fact-1] ## Form & momentum The model favours the away side with a 49% probability, versus 32% for the home win and 19% for a draw; the model reports high confidence with a 17 percentage-point gap to the runner-up. [^fact-2] Cincinnati carries a positive Elo advantage when home advantage is applied — an edge of +108 Elo points — a reminder that raw ratings still tip slightly in the hosts’ direction despite the model favouring the visitors. [^fact-3] Recent on-field returns show Cincinnati are producing more goals than Orlando but also conceding at the same clip: Cincinnati’s last 10 read DLDWW (3 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses) for 1.40 points per game, scoring 2.70 and conceding 2.70 per match. [^fact-4] Orlando’s last 10 are DWLWL (3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses) for 1.10 points per game, with 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5] Those numbers point toward fixtures with defensive fragility on both sides but fewer goals produced by Orlando overall. [^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Personnel Cincinnati’s recent form has been driven in part by Evander, who has 5 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 8.20 in that run. [^fact-7] The hosts will be without A. Chirilă due to injury; he logged 328 minutes in the recent run before being ruled out. [^fact-9] Orlando’s hot player is Martín Ojeda, with 5 goals in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.38, though without assists in that stretch. [^fact-8] Orlando will be missing Joran Gerbet through injury. [^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model identifies a clear market inefficiency on total goals: Under 2.5 has a 54% probability per the model versus a Pinnacle market price implying a much lower probability (market price 3.77), producing a model-market edge of 27.9 percentage points. The report flags this as a high-confidence value pick. [^fact-6] That edge is consistent with the recent stats: Cincinnati and Orlando have conceded at roughly 2.7 and 2.6 goals per match respectively in their last 10, but Orlando’s lower scoring rate and the model’s tilt to fewer goals underpin the under 2.5 view. [^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6] The model compared three markets in its analysis. [^fact-11] ## Verdict The model leans toward an away win (49%) despite Cincinnati’s +108 Elo advantage when home advantage is applied, and it sees Under 2.5 goals as the standout market edge. Expect a match shaped around two in-form finishers — Evander and Martín Ojeda — tempered by notable absences and a statistical nudge toward fewer total goals. [^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 32% / Draw 19% / Away 49% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CIN vs ORL — Elo differential +108 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CIN recent form** — DLDWW last 10: 3-5-2 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 2.70 goals scored / 2.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ORL recent form** — DWLWL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 2.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.77 at Pinnacle, edge 27.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **CIN in-form player** — Evander — 5 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.20. [^fact-8]: **ORL in-form player** — Martín Ojeda — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.38. [^fact-9]: **CIN key absence** — A. Chirilă out (injury), 328 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **ORL key absence** — Joran Gerbet out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .