# Charlotte vs New England > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 23 May 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35803) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Charlotte win:** 77% - **Draw:** 16% - **New England win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 1.96 | Unibet | 71% | +20.4 pp | | totals | Under | 2.15 | Betfair | 54% | +7.9 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Charlotte heavy favourites as New England challenge tempered by absences ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 23 May 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. This fixture is presented as a home assignment for Charlotte[^fact-1], with model projections heavily in their favour[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Charlotte enter with a mixed ten-match ledger: WLDLL, recorded as 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 10 matches, yielding 1.30 points per game and an average of 1.90 goals scored against 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. New England arrive on the back of a superior recent string: WLWWD, recorded as 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses across their last 10, producing 2.20 points per game and averaging 1.50 goals scored while conceding 1.10 per match[^fact-5]. Behind the numbers, the model still places a clear edge on the home side: Home 77% / Draw 16% / Away 7%, a verdict driven in part by an Elo differential of +105 points for Charlotte after home advantage is applied[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The model’s confidence in that ranking is high, with a 61 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Charlotte’s most in-form attacking outlet is Pep Biel, who has 3 goals and 0 assists in his last 5 appearances while carrying an average match rating of 7.32 over that span[^fact-8]. For New England the form man is Carles Gil, with 4 goals and 1 assist across his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.55 in that period[^fact-9]. Key absences change defensive planning for both sides: Charlotte will be without Tim Ream due to a suspension, a player who logged 226 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. New England are missing Luca Langoni through injury, who contributed 432 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11]. Those absences are material to each side’s rotation and depth calculations[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value The model flags two clear market edges after comparing three markets against its projections[^fact-12]. First, the Match Winner market: the model assigns a 71% probability to the Home win while the market price at Unibet sits at 1.96, producing an implied model–market edge of 20.4 percentage points and high confidence in that edge[^fact-6]. Second, the model suggests value on Under 2.5 goals: it estimates a 54% probability for under 2.5 while the Betfair market price is 2.15, an edge of 7.9 percentage points with mid confidence[^fact-7]. Both edges sit alongside the broader model verdict that heavily prefers the home outcome, reinforcing the Match Winner discrepancy as the standout pricing inefficiency[^fact-2][^fact-6]. The Under 2.5 argument dovetails with the narrow defensive margins implied by recent goals conceded data — Charlotte conceding 1.80 per match and New England 1.10 per match in their last ten — which together leave room for a lower-scoring encounter[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the home side, assigning a 77% probability to a Charlotte win and placing draw and away outcomes at 16% and 7% respectively; that gap is supported by a +105 Elo edge after home advantage and a high-confidence model ranking[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Pep Biel and Carles Gil project as the primary attacking threats while expulsions and injuries to Tim Ream and Luca Langoni will force lineup adjustments for both teams[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-11]. The clearest market inefficiency is the Home Match Winner line, where the model’s 71% view contrasts with a 1.96 market price for an apparent edge[^fact-6], with a secondary, lower-confidence lean toward Under 2.5 goals based on the model’s 54% probability versus the market[^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 23 May 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 77% / Draw 16% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 61 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CHL vs NER — Elo differential +105 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CHL recent form** — WLDLL last 10: 4-1-5 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NER recent form** — WLWWD last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 71% vs market price 1.96 at Unibet, edge 20.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.15 at Betfair, edge 7.9 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-8]: **CHL in-form player** — Pep Biel — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.32. [^fact-9]: **NER in-form player** — Carles Gil  — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.55. [^fact-10]: **CHL key absence** — Tim Ream out (suspension), 226 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **NER key absence** — Luca Langoni out (injury), 432 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .