# Nashville SC vs New York City > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35805) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Nashville SC 2–1 New York City ## Model verdict - **Nashville SC win:** 9% - **Draw:** 15% - **New York City win:** 76% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Nashville’s form and model edge make this one heavily tilted ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sun 24 May 2026 at 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. This fixture carries routine regular-season significance inside the MLS calendar; the model places an overwhelmingly strong probability on one side[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Nashville arrive on the back of a run that reads WWDDW over the last 10 matches, a 7-2-1 record (W-D-L) producing 2.30 points per game, with an attacking output of 2.20 goals scored and only 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. That sequence is the statistical backbone of the model’s trust in Nashville: the Elo comparison shows an edge of +107 points after home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. New York City’s recent 10-game ledger is DWWLL — 2-3-5 (W-D-L) — worth 0.90 points per game, averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those numbers underline why the model’s posterior assigns a large probability to the away side: the gap between the model’s top pick and runner-up is 61 percentage points of confidence, leaving Nashville as the clear favorite in probability terms[^fact-2]. ## Personnel The in-form names to watch are explicit. Hany Mukhtar has four goals and one assist in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.40 in that span[^fact-7]. For New York City, Nicolás Fernández Mercau has one goal and three assists in his last five appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.66[^fact-8]. The availability picture includes two notable absences. Patrick Yazbek is out with an injury and contributed 189 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-9]. Maxi Moralez is also absent through injury, having logged 545 minutes in the recent run before missing time[^fact-10]. Those personnel gaps matter in rotation and match-shape, and both absences are captured in the model’s inputs that produced the probabilities above[^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s top market-edge read is on Under 2.5 goals: the model gives Under 2.5 a 54% probability versus a market-implied price at Betfair of 2.10, translating into an edge of 6.8 percentage points (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. This edge is one of three markets compared against the model’s probabilities in the analysis set[^fact-11]. Context for that Under 2.5 lean comes from the two sides’ scoring and conceding rates in their recent runs. Nashville’s defensive record over the last 10 is 0.80 goals conceded per match while averaging 2.20 scored, and New York City’s recent trend is 1.30 scored and 1.60 conceded per match — numbers that push the joint expectation closer to a low-to-medium total rather than an expansive shootout[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The market price on Betfair and the model probability are the explicit basis for the stated edge[^fact-6]. The broader market comparison covered three markets in total against the model’s outputs; the Under 2.5 read represents the clearest numerical discrepancy documented in those comparisons[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model strongly favors the home side with a 76% probability for Nashville, a 15% chance of a draw and just 9% for the away win, a distribution that reflects Nashville’s form, the +107 Elo edge with home applied and the personnel picture described above[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The cleanest market mismatch is Under 2.5 goals versus the Betfair price, where the model projects a 54% likelihood against the market-implied price at 2.10[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 9% / Draw 15% / Away 76% (source: model; confidence high, 61 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NSH vs NYC — Elo differential +107 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NSH recent form** — WWDDW last 10: 7-2-1 (W-D-L), 2.30 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NYC recent form** — DWWLL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.10 at Betfair, edge 6.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **NSH in-form player** — Hany Mukhtar — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.40. [^fact-8]: **NYC in-form player** — Nicolás Fernández Mercau — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.66. [^fact-9]: **NSH key absence** — Patrick Yazbek out (injury), 189 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **NYC key absence** — Maxi Moralez out (injury), 545 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .