# Nashville SC vs New York City > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35805) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Nashville SC win:** 9% - **Draw:** 13% - **New York City win:** 78% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.10 | Betfair | 54% | +6.8 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear model lean as home side carries Elo edge ## The stage Kickoff is set for Sun 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTC in Major League Soccer, a midweek fixture that will compress league rhythms for both sides[^fact-1]. This match carries standard league implications toward the season table (MLS fixture), with both teams needing consistent results across the run; the scheduled time is the single concrete temporal marker provided here[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Nashville arrive on much stronger recent evidence. Across the last 10 matches their sequence reads WWDDW and is summarised as 7-2-1 (W-D-L), yielding 2.30 points per game, with an average of 2.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. New York City, by contrast, show DWWLL in their last 10, recorded as 2-3-5 (W-D-L), with 0.90 points per game and averages of 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded[^fact-5]. The Elo line also favours the hosts: Nashville hold an Elo edge of +107 points with home advantage applied[^fact-3]. The model’s calibrated probabilities echo that gap decisively — it rates the home win at 19%, a draw at 21% and an away win at 60%, with high confidence and a 39 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. Together, form figures and Elo place Nashville as the clearly superior side in current form and expectation[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Nashville’s attacking form is concentrated around Hany Mukhtar, who has four goals and one assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.40 in that span[^fact-7]. That level of output helps explain Nashville’s 2.20 goals-per-game recent rate[^fact-4][^fact-7]. The visitors’ creative push shows in Nicolás Fernández Mercau, who has one goal and three assists in his last five with an average rating of 7.66[^fact-8]. Availability stories tilt slightly in favour of New York City in terms of minutes lost on paper: Nashville will be missing Patrick Yazbek through injury after 189 minutes in the recent run, while New York City are without Maxi Moralez, who contributed 545 minutes in the recent run before his injury absence[^fact-9][^fact-10]. Those absences remove rotation and specific role minutes but do not, from the supplied facts, alter other personnel or tactical descriptions[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were compared against the model for this fixture[^fact-11]. The clearest model-market divergence is on total goals: the model places probability weight behind Under 2.5 goals at 54% while the market price at Betfair implies a lower model-implied probability (price 2.10), producing an edge of 6.8 percentage points in favour of the Under[^fact-6][^fact-11]. Given the recent scoring profiles — Nashville 2.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per match; New York City 1.30 scored and 1.60 conceded per match — the Under pick reflects the model’s balancing of Nashville’s scoring against New York City’s defensive vulnerability and overall lower scoring rate on their side[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. No other specific market edges are presented in the supplied facts, so the Under 2.5 figure remains the single quantified divergence between market and model here[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly toward an away result at 60% against 19% for the home win and 21% for a draw, with high confidence and a 39-point gap to the runner-up projection, while Elo and recent form both favour Nashville on the pitch; the single quantified market edge exposed by the model is on Under 2.5 goals (model 54% vs Betfair 2.10, edge 6.8 pp)[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 19% / Draw 21% / Away 60% (source: model; confidence high, 39 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NSH vs NYC — Elo differential +107 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NSH recent form** — WWDDW last 10: 7-2-1 (W-D-L), 2.30 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NYC recent form** — DWWLL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.10 at Betfair, edge 6.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **NSH in-form player** — Hany Mukhtar — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.40. [^fact-8]: **NYC in-form player** — Nicolás Fernández Mercau — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.66. [^fact-9]: **NSH key absence** — Patrick Yazbek out (injury), 189 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **NYC key absence** — Maxi Moralez out (injury), 545 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .