# Sporting KC vs New York RB > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35807) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sporting KC 1–2 New York RB ## Model verdict - **Sporting KC win:** 72% - **Draw:** 16% - **New York RB win:** 12% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low-scoring lean dominate model outlook ## The stage This is a Major League Soccer fixture kicking off on Sun 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The timing and competition compresses attention on results rather than spectacle given calendar congestion in MLS[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model gives an unmistakable home lean: Home 72% / Draw 16% / Away 12%[^fact-2]. That is reflected in the Elo gap, with Sporting KC carrying a +123-point edge once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent form paints Sporting KC as vulnerable despite the Elo cushion: SKC’s last 10 read WWLDL, a 3-1-6 ledger producing 1.00 points per game and 1.10 goals scored against 2.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. New York RB have been patchier but marginally more productive in attack across their last 10, DWWLL yielding 1.20 points per game with 1.90 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. This is a contrast between a higher-rated home side by Elo[^fact-3] and a visiting side whose recent output in goals and points is slightly better than Sporting KC’s form numbers[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s confidence sits wide of the runner-up by 56 percentage points, signalling a clear quantitative preference for the home outcome[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Sporting KC’s in-form outlet highlighted by the data is Calvin Harris, who has produced 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.01[^fact-7]. That attacking contribution stands out against SKC’s broader scoring rate of 1.10 goals per match across the last 10[^fact-4][^fact-7]. New York’s most productive recent performer in the model is Cade Cowell, with 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.05[^fact-8]. Cowell’s involvement underpins much of NYRB’s 1.90 goals-per-game figure over the same recent window[^fact-5][^fact-8]. The two heaviest absences to note are Kwaku Agyabeng out for SKC (injury), who logged 180 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9], and Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting ruled out for New York RB (injury), with 71 minutes in his recent samples[^fact-10]. Those minutes totals show both teams lose players who were being given finite rotation minutes rather than full-season heavy lifters, but the model still treats the absences as material inputs to its probabilities[^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market discrepancy identified is Under 2.5 goals. The model assigns a 54% probability to the Under 2.5 outcome versus a Betfair market price of 3.25, yielding an edge of 23.6 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. This lines up with the recent defensive frailty evidenced in raw goals conceded numbers — both teams have been conceding more than they score over the last 10 matches, with SKC conceding 2.80 and NYRB 2.60 per match[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s Under lean is therefore not a contradiction of those concession rates but a synthesis of several factors: the Elo advantage for the home side[^fact-3], the specific attacking outputs from highlighted individuals[^fact-7][^fact-8], and the market pricing gap where three markets were compared against the model[^fact-11]. Markets analysed amount to three separate lines compared with the model, with Under 2.5 standing out as the single highest-confidence mismatch between model probability and market odds[^fact-11][^fact-6]. The precise Betfair figure used for that comparison is 3.25 in the Under 2.5 market, which the model translates into the 23.6-percentage-point edge[^fact-6]. ## Verdict The quantitative read is compact: model leans decisively to the home side while flagging Under 2.5 goals as the clearest market inefficiency — an outcome driven by a +123 Elo edge for the hosts, divergent recent form numbers, concentrated attacking contributions from Calvin Harris and Cade Cowell, and two notable injury absences that reduce certain rotation options[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 00:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 72% / Draw 16% / Away 12% (source: model; confidence high, 56 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SKC vs NYR — Elo differential +123 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SKC recent form** — WWLDL last 10: 3-1-6 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.10 goals scored / 2.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NYR recent form** — DWWLL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 2.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.25 at Betfair, edge 23.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **SKC in-form player** — Calvin Harris — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.01. [^fact-8]: **NYR in-form player** — Cade Cowell — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.05. [^fact-9]: **SKC key absence** — Kwaku Agyabeng out (injury), 180 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **NYR key absence** — Eric-Maxim Choupo-Moting out (injury), 71 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .