# Portland Timbers vs SJ Earthquakes > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 01:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35810) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Portland Timbers 1–3 SJ Earthquakes ## Model verdict - **Portland Timbers win:** 80% - **Draw:** 13% - **SJ Earthquakes win:** 7% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home heavy on paper as under trends under 2.5 goals ## The stage Kickoff is Sun 24 May 2026, 01:30 UTC in Major League Soccer. [^fact-1] This fixture pits Portland Timbers against San Jose Earthquakes; the supplied facts do not name a specific venue. [^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Form & momentum Portland enter the match with a mixed sequence: LDWLW across their last 10, recorded as 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, producing 1.10 points per game while averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-4] San Jose’s recent run reads LLDDW — 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 10 — yielding 2.00 points per game with 2.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-5] On ratings that adjust for opponent strength and home advantage, Portland enjoy an Elo advantage of +103 points after home advantage is applied, a substantial structural edge. [^fact-3] The model’s aggregate verdict is emphatic: Home 80% / Draw 13% / Away 7%, with the model reporting high confidence and a 67 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome. [^fact-2] ## Personnel Portland’s most in-form attacking figure in the supplied facts is Kevin Kelsy: 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 7.59. [^fact-7] San Jose’s recent attacking threat is Preston Judd: 4 goals and 0 assists in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 7.15. [^fact-8] Portland will be missing Zac McGraw through injury. [^fact-9] San Jose are without Niko Tsakiris, out injured and credited with 278 minutes in the recent run covered by the facts. [^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model flags one clear market edge against public pricing: Under 2.5 goals. The model probability is 54% versus a market price of 3.00 at BetVictor, giving an edge of 21.0 percentage points and flagged with high confidence. [^fact-6] Three markets were analysed against the model in total. [^fact-11] The combination of Portland’s Elo advantage after home adjustment [+103 points] and San Jose’s recent higher goals conceded rate (1.30 conceded per match is lower than Portland’s 1.70, but San Jose also score 2.50 per match) creates a tension: the structural rating edge sits against form that suggests San Jose can generate chances. [^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4] Despite San Jose’s stronger points-per-game and higher goals-scored figure, the model still places a dominant probability on the home outcome, and its single statistically material market discrepancy is on the total goals line under 2.5. [^fact-2][^fact-6] ## Verdict The model leans heavily to the home side — Home 80% / Draw 13% / Away 7% — driven by a +103 Elo differential after home advantage and despite San Jose’s superior recent points and goal output; the clearest market inefficiency identified versus that forecast is on Under 2.5 goals (model 54% vs BetVictor 3.00). [^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 01:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 80% / Draw 13% / Away 7% (source: model; confidence high, 67 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — POT vs SJE — Elo differential +103 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **POT recent form** — LDWLW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SJE recent form** — LLDDW last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.50 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.00 at BetVictor, edge 21.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **POT in-form player** — Kevin Kelsy — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.59. [^fact-8]: **SJE in-form player** — Preston Judd — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-9]: **POT key absence** — Zac McGraw out (injury). [^fact-10]: **SJE key absence** — Niko Tsakiris out (injury), 278 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .