# Inter Miami vs Philadelphia Union > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sun 24 May 2026, 23:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35813) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Inter Miami 6–4 Philadelphia Union ## Model verdict - **Inter Miami win:** 12% - **Draw:** 19% - **Philadelphia Union win:** 70% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Messi-led Miami riding momentum; model heavily favours visitors ## The stage Kickoff is Sun 24 May 2026 at 23:00 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. This match lands squarely in the MLS calendar with both sides looking to arrest runs that will define their immediate fortunes[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Form and probabilistic models are aligned: the predictive model gives an away win the largest share at 70%, with the home win at 12% and the draw at 19%—a 51 percentage-point gap to the nearest runner-up, labelled high confidence[^fact-2]. Elo also sees a clear edge for the visitors, with an adjusted differential of +120 points in favour of the away side[^fact-3]. Recent results underline why. The home side have produced WWWLD across their last 10 and are averaging 2.10 points per game while scoring 2.70 goals and conceding 1.80 per match in that span[^fact-4]. The away side arrive with DLLDL over their last 10, managing just 0.70 points per game with 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those numbers present a contrast between attacking potency and broader fragility, but the model and Elo both tilt decisively toward the visitors nevertheless[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Lionel Messi is the in-form player to watch for the hosts, with 5 goals and 5 assists in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 8.73[^fact-7]. For the visitors, Milan Iloski has contributed 2 goals in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 7.16[^fact-8]. Absences are material: Rodrigo De Paul is out injured after contributing 630 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9], while the visitors are without Andre Blake, also out injured after 540 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Those missing minutes indicate both sides will need to redistribute roles in midfield and goalkeeping respectively[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market edge identified is on the Under in Goals O/U 2.5: the model assigns 54% probability to that outcome versus a market price of 3.40 at Betfair, producing an edge of 25.0 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-6]. Three markets were compared against the model in total, and this Under 2.5 selection is the standout discrepancy between model and market[^fact-11][^fact-6]. Context for that value: despite one side's high scoring rate in the recent sample, the model and Elo advantage for the visitors—plus the absences on both sides—produce a forecast that favours a lower-scoring game than the market implies[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-9][^fact-10]. The specific market price reported is 3.40 at Betfair for Over/Under 2.5, against which the model finds a notable edge[^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly toward the away side with a 70% chance, a position reinforced by a +120 Elo differential and a 51 percentage-point confidence gap to the runner-up, while the clearest market inefficiency is the model's 54% probability on Under 2.5 goals versus the 3.40 market price[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 24 May 2026, 23:00 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 12% / Draw 19% / Away 70% (source: model; confidence high, 51 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — MIA vs PHI — Elo differential +120 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **MIA recent form** — WWWLD last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.70 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **PHI recent form** — DLLDL last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.40 at Betfair, edge 25.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **MIA in-form player** — Lionel Messi  — 5 goals, 5 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.73. [^fact-8]: **PHI in-form player** — Milan Iloski — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.16. [^fact-9]: **MIA key absence** — Rodrigo De Paul out (injury), 630 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **PHI key absence** — Andre Blake out (injury), 540 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .