# Los Angeles FC vs Seattle Sounders > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Mon 25 May 2026, 01:15 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35814) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Los Angeles FC 1–0 Seattle Sounders ## Model verdict - **Los Angeles FC win:** 82% - **Draw:** 12% - **Seattle Sounders win:** 6% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily to home as form and numbers diverge ## The stage Major League Soccer action arrives on Mon 25 May 2026 with kickoff at 01:15 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture sits squarely in the domestic calendar and the timing favours a clear overnight audience; the exact venue is not supplied in the data set and will not be guessed. ## Form & momentum The model delivers a decisive lean to the home side — Home 82% / Draw 12% / Away 6% — a gap that comes with high confidence and a 70 percentage-point margin over the runner-up projection[^fact-2]. That numerical conviction is mirrored in the Elo differential: the home team carries an edge of +118 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent results underline why the model is so one-sided. Los Angeles FC are in a patchy run: LLLDW over their last 10, translating to a 2-3-5 record (W-D-L), 0.90 points per game, 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Seattle Sounders arrive in clearly better shape of late: LWDDW over their last 10, a 6-3-1 record (W-D-L) with 2.10 points per game, 1.40 goals scored and only 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those per-game figures make the contrast stark: the home side’s struggles to take points and a higher goals-against rate versus the away side’s stronger points yield and defensive solidity are explicit in the supplied metrics[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Los Angeles FC’s most notable in-form contributor in the dataset is Denis Bouanga, who has 2 goals and 1 assist across his last four appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.33 in that span[^fact-8]. For the visitors, Jesús Ferreira is highlighted with 2 goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.71[^fact-9]. Those short-term attacking returns are the clearest offensive signals available from the facts[^fact-8][^fact-9]. Availability issues also matter. Los Angeles FC will be missing Sergi Palencia through injury; the facts record 215 minutes for him in the recent run before his absence[^fact-10]. Seattle will be without Nouhou through suspension, and Nouhou is noted for 515 minutes in the recent run prior to missing this game[^fact-11]. Both absences are flagged as key in the dataset and should shape defensive planning on either side[^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were compared against the model in the supplied analysis[^fact-12]. The clearest discrepancy is in the match-winner market: the model puts the home side at 74% for the match winner while the market price at MansionBet implies a lower probability via odds of 1.97, producing an edge of 23.3 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-6]. That is the largest single edge cited in the dataset and the primary value signal. A second notable discrepancy sits on the goals market. The model assigns a 54% probability to Under 2.5 goals while the Unibet market price of 2.20 implies a lower model-implied probability, yielding an edge of 8.9 percentage points and, again, high confidence in the data provided[^fact-7]. Both edges emerge from the same model run that produced the heavy home-win lean and were explicitly compared across three markets in the dataset[^fact-2][^fact-12]. The model’s views on individual form also inform these market edges: Bouanga’s recent returns (2 goals, 1 assist in four) are noted but sit alongside a club-level goal output that averages 1.50 per match in the recent run[^fact-8][^fact-4]. Ferreira’s contributions (2 goals in five) come within a Seattle side averaging 1.40 goals and a far stronger defensive concession rate of 0.80 per match, supporting a lower-scoring expectation in the model’s frame[^fact-9][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model’s verdict is emphatic: a home win is the primary lean (82% model probability) supported by an Elo advantage of +118 points and the largest market edge (home match-winner, model 74% vs market 1.97) in the dataset[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. Secondary support comes from a marginal preference for Under 2.5 goals (model 54%) versus market pricing[^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 25 May 2026, 01:15 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 82% / Draw 12% / Away 6% (source: model; confidence high, 70 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LAF vs SEA — Elo differential +118 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LAF recent form** — LLLDW last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SEA recent form** — LWDDW last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 74% vs market price 1.97 at MansionBet, edge 23.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.20 at Unibet, edge 8.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **LAF in-form player** — Denis Bouanga — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-9]: **SEA in-form player** — Jesús Ferreira — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.71. [^fact-10]: **LAF key absence** — Sergi Palencia out (injury), 215 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **SEA key absence** — Nouhou out (suspension), 515 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . 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