# Al Ittihad vs Al-Qadsiah > Pro League · Kickoff Thu 21 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35988) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Al Ittihad 1–5 Al-Qadsiah ## Model verdict - **Al Ittihad win:** 65% - **Draw:** 25% - **Al-Qadsiah win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home edge and low-goal lean from the model ## The stage Al Ittihad host Al‑Qadsiah in a Pro League fixture kicking off Thu 21 May 2026 at 18:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match presents a straight domestic league test with the home side carrying the statistical edge in the model[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form reads differently on paper: Al Ittihad have produced LWWDW over their last 10 outings, a 5‑1‑4 record yielding 1.60 points per game, scoring 1.60 and conceding 1.50 on average per match[^fact-4]. Al‑Qadsiah arrive with WWWWD in their last 10, a 6‑3‑1 record producing 2.10 points per game, with 2.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Despite Qadsiah’s hotter recent run, the model still favours the home side — Home 65% / Draw 25% / Away 10%[^fact-2] — an opinion supported by an applied Elo differential of +89 points to the home side[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Al Ittihad’s short‑term attacking form is being driven by Houssem Aouar, who has 4 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and carries an average rating of 7.45 in that span[^fact-9]. The home side will be missing Muhannad Shanqeeti through injury; he has logged 301 minutes in the recent run and his absence is noted in the match build‑up[^fact-11]. Al‑Qadsiah’s key performer is Julián Quiñones, who has 4 goals and 2 assists in his last 4 appearances and an average rating of 7.69 in that period[^fact-10]. The visitors are without Koen Casteels due to injury; he has been unavailable for 360 minutes in the recent run[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value Three market edges were identified after comparing the model to market prices across three markets[^fact-13]. - Home in Match Winner: the model gives Home 62% while Dafabet offers 2.48, producing an edge of 22.1 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-6]. - Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns 54% to Under while Betfair quotes 2.63, an edge of 16.4 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-7]. - Both Teams to Score — No: the model places 49% on No while 1xbet shows 2.73, an edge of 12.0 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-8]. Those three opportunities are the specific spots where the model’s probability distribution diverges materially from listed prices, and they are the precise edges surfaced by the comparison to market quotes[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the home side (Home 65% / Draw 25% / Away 10%) while also flagging a modest low‑goal lean and a chance that both teams won’t score, producing three high‑confidence value spots against the market[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 21 May 2026, 18:00 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 65% / Draw 25% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ITT vs QAD — Elo differential +89 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ITT recent form** — LWWDW last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **QAD recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.40 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 62% vs market price 2.48 at Dafabet, edge 22.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.63 at Betfair, edge 16.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.73 at 1xbet, edge 12.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-9]: **ITT in-form player** — Houssem Aouar — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-10]: **QAD in-form player** — Julián Quiñones — 4 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.69. [^fact-11]: **ITT key absence** — Muhannad Shanqeeti out (injury), 301 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **QAD key absence** — Koen Casteels out (injury), 360 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .