# Al Hazm vs Al Taawoun > Pro League · Kickoff Thu 21 May 2026, 18:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/35990) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Al Hazm 2–0 Al Taawoun ## Model verdict - **Al Hazm win:** 48% - **Draw:** 31% - **Al Taawoun win:** 22% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low-scoring profile shape model’s lean ## The stage This fixture arrives as a late-May Pro League encounter with kickoff set for Thu 21 May 2026, 18:00 UTC. [^fact-1] The model treats the home side as the narrow favourite, placing the match in a tight competitive bracket where a draw remains a realistic outcome. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Recent sequences point to two teams moving in different stylistic directions. Al Hazm's ten-match line reads LDLDW, recorded as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in that sample, producing 1.40 points per game with an output of 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Al Taawoun’s ten-match run shows DLWLW, recorded as 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses, producing 1.30 points per game with 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5] The model applies a clear Elo advantage to the home side — an edge of +100 points after home advantage is included — which is consistent with the model’s tilt toward the hosts. [^fact-3] That Elo cushion, combined with Al Hazm’s slightly higher recent points return, helps explain the model’s probabilities: home 48%, draw 31%, away 22%. [^fact-2] In short: the home team carries the statistical edge via Elo and a marginally better recent points rate, while Al Taawoun presents a marginally more aggressive goal profile but not enough to flip the model’s baseline probabilities. [^fact-3] [^fact-4] [^fact-5] ## Personnel Al Hazm’s in-form attacking presence for this window is Loreintz Rosier, who has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist across his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.77 for that period. [^fact-9] The same short-term window highlights Angelo Fulgini for Al Taawoun, with 2 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.89. [^fact-10] Availability notes are straightforward and potentially meaningful. Al Hazm will be without Abdulrahman Al-Dakheel due to injury; he logged 297 minutes in the recent run prior to this absence. [^fact-11] Al Taawoun are missing Bassam Al-Hurayji with an injury absence noted. [^fact-12] Those absences reduce rotational depth on both sides and slightly elevate the importance of the listed in-form contributors for the match outcome. [^fact-9] [^fact-10] [^fact-11] [^fact-12] ## Where the model sees value The model flags three measurable edges against market prices across three markets analysed. [^fact-13] - Value pick #1 — Match Winner (Home): the model assigns a 45% probability to the home win versus a market price implying lower chance at 4.10 on Unibet, producing an edge of 20.2 percentage points (high confidence). [^fact-6] - Value pick #2 — Under 2.5 goals: the model gives under 2.5 a 54% probability versus the market price at 2.30 on bet365, an edge of 10.9 percentage points (high confidence). [^fact-7] - Value pick #3 — Both Teams to Score (No): the model places a 49% probability on BTTS = No versus the market price at 2.38 on Betfair, an edge of 6.6 percentage points (mid confidence). [^fact-8] These three edges reflect a coherent view: the model favours the home side while also projecting a lower-scoring matchup where one side—or both—fail to find the net with reasonable frequency. [^fact-6] [^fact-7] [^fact-8] ## Verdict The model leans to the home side with a 48% chance, a 31% chance of a draw and a 22% shot for the away team; the Elo differential of +100 points helps explain that lean and the model’s conviction. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] Concurrent signals for under 2.5 goals (54%) and No on both teams scoring (49%) align with the teams’ recent scoring and conceding rates and the listed player availability notes, producing a compact forecast favouring a low-scoring home result. [^fact-4] [^fact-5] [^fact-11] [^fact-12] [^fact-6] [^fact-7] [^fact-8] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 21 May 2026, 18:00 UTC — Pro League [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 48% / Draw 31% / Away 22% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HAZ vs ALT — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HAZ recent form** — LDLDW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ALT recent form** — DLWLW last 10: 3-4-3 (W-D-L), 1.30 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 45% vs market price 4.10 at Unibet, edge 20.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.30 at bet365, edge 10.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 49% vs market price 2.38 at Betfair, edge 6.6 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-9]: **HAZ in-form player** — Loreintz Rosier — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.77. [^fact-10]: **ALT in-form player** — Angelo Fulgini — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.89. [^fact-11]: **HAZ key absence** — Abdulrahman Al-Dakheel  out (injury), 297 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **ALT key absence** — Bassam Al-Hurayji out (injury). [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . 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