# Palmeiras vs Chapecoense > Serie A · Kickoff Sun 31 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/36218) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Palmeiras 1–0 Chapecoense ## Model verdict - **Palmeiras win:** 48% - **Draw:** 26% - **Chapecoense win:** 27% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Big Elo Gap and Under 2.5 Looks Probable ## The stage This fixture kicks off on Sun 31 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC in Serie A[^fact-1]. The scheduling and competition context point to a fixture where the home side is expected to carry responsibility for control and result, as reflected in the model's pre-match probabilities[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Palmeiras arrive with a markedly better recent record: six wins and four draws in their last ten matches, translating to 2.20 points per game and an attacking/defensive output of 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Chapecoense sit at the opposite end of momentum with zero wins, two draws and eight defeats across their last ten, producing 0.20 points per game and a goals profile of 0.80 scored and 2.30 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model also encodes a substantial quality gap via Elo: Palmeiras enjoy an Elo differential advantage of +159 points after home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. That Elo edge maps directly to the model's match-level probabilities, which give the home side a 48% chance, the draw 26% and the away side 27% — the model expresses high confidence in that home lean, with a 21 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability[^fact-2]. Taken together, form and Elo both signal a strong favoritism toward the hosts, while Chapecoense’s recent defensive frailty and paltry points return underline why the model’s probabilities skew as they do[^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Palmeiras’ in-form attacker José Manuel López has three goals and no assists in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 6.97 across that run[^fact-7]. López’s scoring sequence represents the clearest offensive spark on the home side in recent matches[^fact-7]. On the visiting side, Bruno Pacheco has been more of a creator than a finisher: zero goals and three assists in his last four appearances, with an average rating of 7.28 across those games[^fact-8]. That output makes Pacheco the most prominent attacking contributor for Chapecoense in the immediate sample[^fact-8]. Availability questions matter: Palmeiras will be without Carlos Miguel due to suspension after 540 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. Chapecoense are missing Victor Caetano through injury after 244 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Those absences remove two players who have logged meaningful minutes and will force on-pitch adjustments for both sides[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights a market discrepancy on goals: Under 2.5 goals is assessed at 54% probability by the model versus a market price of 2.32 at Unibet, producing an edge of 11.3 percentage points with high confidence[^fact-6]. That league-context-friendly projection coheres with Palmeiras’ defensive numbers — 0.50 goals conceded per match in the recent sample — and Chapecoense’s low scoring and high concession rates[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. Markets were compared across three separate markets against the model, with the Under 2.5 outcome flagged as the primary value pick after that analysis[^fact-11][^fact-6]. The combination of a large Elo gap, the home side’s conservative defensive output, and Chapecoense’s scoring struggles explains why a low-scoring outcome carries the model’s highest surplus versus market price[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side with a 48% probability while still allowing for draw and away outcomes at 26% and 27% respectively; the strongest market-model divergence is on Under 2.5 goals (model 54% vs market 2.32) and that low-scoring case is consistent with both teams’ recent profiles and the +159 Elo advantage applied to the hosts[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 31 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 48% / Draw 26% / Away 27% (source: model; confidence high, 21 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — PAL vs Chapecoense — Elo differential +159 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **PAL recent form** — WDDDW last 10: 6-4-0 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.30 goals scored / 0.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Chapecoense recent form** — LLDLL last 10: 0-2-8 (W-D-L), 0.20 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.32 at Unibet, edge 11.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **PAL in-form player** — José Manuel López — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.97. [^fact-8]: **Chapecoense in-form player** — Bruno Pacheco — 0 goals, 3 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.28. [^fact-9]: **PAL key absence** — Carlos Miguel out (suspension), 540 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Chapecoense key absence** — Victor Caetano out (injury), 244 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .