# FC Utrecht vs SC Heerenveen > Eredivisie · Kickoff Thu 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/36961) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** FC Utrecht 3–2 SC Heerenveen ## Model verdict - **FC Utrecht win:** 72% - **Draw:** 18% - **SC Heerenveen win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Utrecht heavy favourites on form and model edge ## The stage This tie arrives on Thu 21 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC in the closing rounds of the Eredivisie[^fact-1]. Home advantage is explicitly part of the calculation that drives a strong model lean for the hosts[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Utrecht enter on a run summarised as WWWLW in their last 10, recorded as 7-1-2 (W‑D‑L) and producing 2.20 points per game; their recent numbers show 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Heerenveen have a slightly different string of results — DLWWL in their last 10, listed as 6-2-2 (W‑D‑L) with 2.00 points per game and attacking output of 1.70 goals while conceding 1.10 per match[^fact-5]. The model applies a sizeable Elo advantage to the home side, an effective differential of +206 points after home advantage is included[^fact-3], and issues a decisive probability split of Home 72% / Draw 18% / Away 9% (model confidence described as high, with a 54 percentage‑point gap to the runner‑up outcome)[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Utrecht’s most influential recent performer in the data is Dani de Wit: 3 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.62[^fact-9]. Heerenveen’s standout contributor in form terms is Jacob Trenskow, who has 0 goals and 2 assists in his last five, averaging a 6.82 rating[^fact-10]. Each side will also be missing a regular defensive presence: Utrecht are without Mike van der Hoorn, who logged 863 minutes in the recent run[^fact-11], while Heerenveen are without Oliver Braude, who accounted for 810 minutes in their recent run[^fact-12]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s primary market discrepancy is the Match Winner line: Home is modelled at 71% while the market price at Dafabet sits at 1.98, representing a 20.0 percentage‑point edge for the home outcome (high confidence)[^fact-6]. Secondary edges sit in lower‑probability markets. The model places Under 2.5 goals at 43% against a Betfair O/U 2.5 price of 2.55, an edge of 4.1 percentage points but marked with low confidence[^fact-7]. Similarly, the model assigns No to Both Teams to Score at 42% versus a Betfair price of 2.63, an edge of 4.0 percentage points and also low confidence[^fact-8]. Three markets were analysed against the model in total[^fact-13]. ## Verdict The model gives a clear lean to the home side — 72% chance on the three‑way line with a large Elo cushion of +206 points and a 54 pp confidence gap to the next outcome — and the most robust market discrepancy is the Home Match Winner priced at 1.98 on Dafabet, where the model sees a 20.0 pp edge[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 21 May 2026, 19:00 UTC — Eredivisie [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 72% / Draw 18% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 54 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — UTR vs HEE — Elo differential +206 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **UTR recent form** — WWWLW last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HEE recent form** — DLWWL last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 71% vs market price 1.98 at Dafabet, edge 20.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 43% vs market price 2.55 at Betfair, edge 4.1 pp (low confidence). [^fact-8]: **Value pick #3** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 42% vs market price 2.63 at Betfair, edge 4.0 pp (low confidence). [^fact-9]: **UTR in-form player** — Dani de Wit — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.62. [^fact-10]: **HEE in-form player** — Jacob Trenskow — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.82. [^fact-11]: **UTR key absence** — Mike van der Hoorn out (injury), 863 minutes in recent run. [^fact-12]: **HEE key absence** — Oliver Braude out (injury), 810 minutes in recent run. [^fact-13]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .