# Canada vs Qatar > World Cup · Kickoff Thu 18 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/36967) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Canada 6–0 Qatar ## Model verdict - **Canada win:** 56% - **Draw:** 17% - **Qatar win:** 27% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and a tight game predicted — low-scoring lean ## The stage This is a World Cup group fixture kicking off Thu 18 Jun 2026 at 22:00 UTC, a match that matters for both teams' tournament trajectories and group math[^fact-1]. The scheduling and tournament setting elevate every point and goal value here, with both sides aware that a favourable result immediately alters qualification permutations in a short competition window[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum On recent form alone both teams arrive level: each side has produced one match yielding a single point, recorded as D in the last one, with identical per-match returns of 1.00 points and averages of 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model, however, assigns a clear home advantage: Canada is the model favorite at 56% while a draw sits at 17% and an away win at 27% — a 29 percentage-point gap to the runner-up that signals a confident lean[^fact-2]. That sentiment is backed by an Elo differential of +100 in Canada's favour once home advantage is applied, a non-trivial quality edge on paper[^fact-3]. ## Personnel The supplied facts single out two in-form contributors. For Canada the attacking reference is Cyle Larin, who has 1 goal in his last appearance and an average rating of 7.37[^fact-7]. For Qatar the highlighted performer is Homam Al-Amin, credited with 1 assist in his most recent outing and an average rating of 7.33[^fact-8]. The fact set provided focuses on these in-form spotlights; no other player availability or absences are documented in the supplied facts, so squad-level details beyond these contributors are not part of this dataset[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model for this fixture[^fact-9]. The clearest priced edge identified is on the Under 2.5 goals market: the model assigns a 54% probability to Under 2.5 while the market at Pinnacle is pricing that line at the equivalent of 48% (decimal 2.11), creating a 7.0 percentage-point edge in favour of the low-goals outcome (mid confidence)[^fact-6]. The model’s probability split — with a strong home lean and a modest away chance — aligns with a contest that is expected to be tighter and perhaps cagey, which is consistent with the Under 2.5 projection and the identical recent goal averages shown by both sides[^fact-2][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. The model also considered two other markets in its comparison set, though the supplied facts list only the count of markets analysed rather than their specific pricing or edges[^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is toward the home side: Canada is favoured with a 56% probability, supported by a +100 Elo edge with home advantage applied and identical short-term scoring profiles from both teams that argue for a compact match and help explain the Under 2.5 market edge[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. Cyle Larin and Homam Al-Amin are the named form players to watch in the supplied facts; beyond them the dataset contains no further personnel information to alter the model’s clear home-first verdict[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 18 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 56% / Draw 17% / Away 27% (source: model; confidence high, 29 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CAN vs QAT — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CAN recent form** — D last 1: 0-1-0 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **QAT recent form** — D last 1: 0-1-0 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.11 at Pinnacle, edge 7.0 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **CAN in-form player** — Cyle Larin — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 7.37. [^fact-8]: **QAT in-form player** — Homam Al-Amin — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 7.33. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .