# Brazil vs Haiti > World Cup · Kickoff Sat 20 Jun 2026, 00:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/36973) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Brazil 3–0 Haiti ## Model verdict - **Brazil win:** 76% - **Draw:** 14% - **Haiti win:** 10% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy favourites and a quiet goals market to watch ## The stage This is a World Cup group fixture with a clear schedule slot: kickoff is Sat 20 Jun 2026, 00:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The match sits inside the tournament proper, so outcomes will matter for group progression and table management in that context[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model identifies a dominant home favourite: Home 76% / Draw 14% / Away 10%[^fact-2]. That confidence is reflected in an Elo gap of +115 in favour of the home side after home advantage has been applied[^fact-3]. Recent results paint a more nuanced short-term picture. The home team’s last recorded sequence is D (0-1-0), producing 1.00 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The visitors arrive on a hotter run: a 2-0-1 sequence (W-W-L) over their last three, averaging 2.00 points per game, scoring 1.00 and conceding 0.33 per match[^fact-5]. Combine the Elo cushion with those form lines and the narrative is straightforward: superior baseline strength for the home side but visitors carrying better immediate momentum[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel The supplied facts flag two players to watch for their recent form. Bruno Guimarães is the home side’s in-form midfielder with 0 goals and 1 assist across his last 1 appearance and an average rating of 7.13[^fact-7]. Jean‑Ricner Bellegarde is the visitor highlighted for recent performance with 0 goals, 0 assists in his last 1 appearance and an average rating of 7.38[^fact-8]. No additional personnel details or listed absences are contained in the supplied facts, so final lineups and late availability will be decisive but are outside the available dataset.[^fact-7][^fact-8] ## Where the model sees value The model’s clearest market edge sits on the under in total goals (O/U 2.5). The model assigns a 54% probability to the match finishing under 2.5 goals while the market price referenced is 3.40 at bet365 — an edge of 25.0 percentage points and described with high confidence in the supplied facts[^fact-6]. That edge stands out against the three markets the model compared to the market prices in this exercise[^fact-9][^fact-6]. Context for why the model might favour fewer goals comes from the data available: the home side’s recent matches show 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-4], and the visitors’ short-term defensive record is tight at 0.33 goals conceded per match across the last three[^fact-5]. Together, those per-game figures are consistent with a game that can realistically finish below 2.5 goals even when the home side is probabilistically dominant[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans heavily to the home side — Home 76% — underpinned by an Elo advantage of +115 and a sizeable confidence gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2][^fact-3]. However, the best quantitative market opportunity in the supplied facts is for Under 2.5 goals (model 54% vs market 3.40), a view supported by both teams’ recent per-game scoring and conceding rates[^fact-6][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 20 Jun 2026, 00:30 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 76% / Draw 14% / Away 10% (source: model; confidence high, 62 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BRA vs HAI — Elo differential +115 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BRA recent form** — D last 1: 0-1-0 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HAI recent form** — LWW last 3: 2-0-1 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 0.33 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.40 at bet365, edge 25.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **BRA in-form player** — Bruno Guimarães — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 7.13. [^fact-8]: **HAI in-form player** — Jean-Ricner Bellegarde — 0 goals, 0 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 7.38. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .