# Belgium vs Iran > World Cup · Kickoff Sun 21 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/36980) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Belgium 0–0 Iran ## Model verdict - **Belgium win:** 35% - **Draw:** 20% - **Iran win:** 45% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Tight, low-scoring tilt expected as model favours Iran ## The stage This World Cup fixture kicks off on Sun 21 Jun 2026 at 19:00 UTC, a single-match test with group implications implied by the tournament context in the supplied facts[^fact-1]. The neutral venue is not specified in the data provided; the kickoff time is the only fixed logistical detail in the supplied facts[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model places the away side ahead: Away 45% win probability, Home 35% and Draw 20%, a clear but not overwhelming lean toward the visitor according to the modeled verdict[^fact-2]. That view is consistent with an applied Elo differential that gives the home side a +100-point edge after home advantage has been applied to the matchup, a figure that anchors expectations about baseline quality between the teams[^fact-3]. Recent results show a contrast in short-term output. Belgium’s last three competitive matches returned W-D-L (1-2-0) for an average of 1.67 points per game, with 3.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per match in that sample[^fact-4]. Iran’s most recent appearance is a single draw (0-1-0) yielding 1.00 point per game, with 2.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded in that lone match reported here[^fact-5]. Those per-match figures point to Belgium carrying higher attacking output and a superior defensive record across the provided multi-game window, while Iran’s one-match snapshot shows an even goals-for/goals-against balance over the supplied sample[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Belgium’s in-form spotlight in the supplied facts is Youri Tielemans, who has 0 goals and 0 assists in his last 1 appearances with an average rating of 7.65 in that reported outing[^fact-7]. Iran’s named hot player is Ramin Rezaeian, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 1 appearances with an average rating of 8.64 in that reported outing[^fact-8]. No other individual availability or absence data is included in the supplied facts, so assessment of injuries or suspensions cannot be made from the provided dataset[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market edge identified against public pricing concerns totals: the model favours the Under 2.5 goals market at 54% probability versus a Pinnacle market price of 2.06, producing an edge of 5.8 percentage points in the model’s view (confidence rated mid for this pick in the supplied facts)[^fact-6]. That single value pick is the top quantified discrepancy between the model and the market among the three markets analysed in the supplied facts[^fact-9][^fact-6]. Interpretation of those numbers in the context of recent form: Belgium’s supplied three-match sample shows a high scoring output (3.00 goals per match) and a strong defensive baseline (0.67 conceded per match), but Iran’s single-match sample shows both scoring and conceding at 2.00 per match, producing a combined set of data that still allows a model to prefer a lower total when calibrated to probabilities rather than raw recent-goals averages[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. The model’s mid confidence and the noted 10-percentage-point gap to the runner-up in the overall matchup verdict indicate a meaningful tilt, but not unanimity, in the probabilistic view[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans to the away side with a 45% win probability against a 35% home probability and 20% for a draw, while flagging Under 2.5 goals as the single quantified market edge (model 54% vs Pinnacle 2.06, edge 5.8 pp) in the supplied facts[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 21 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 35% / Draw 20% / Away 45% (source: model; confidence mid, 10 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — BEL vs IRN — Elo differential +100 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BEL recent form** — DWD last 3: 1-2-0 (W-D-L), 1.67 PPG, 3.00 goals scored / 0.67 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **IRN recent form** — D last 1: 0-1-0 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.06 at Pinnacle, edge 5.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **BEL in-form player** — Youri Tielemans — 0 goals, 0 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 7.65. [^fact-8]: **IRN in-form player** — Ramin Rezaeian — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 8.64. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .