# Colombia vs Congo DR > World Cup · Kickoff Wed 24 Jun 2026, 02:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/36990) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Colombia 1–0 Congo DR ## Model verdict - **Colombia win:** 61% - **Draw:** 21% - **Congo DR win:** 18% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Colombia clear favourites on paper as form and Elo align ## The stage A World Cup group fixture kicks off on Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 02:00 UTC, a game that carries group-stage consequences for both teams[^fact-1]. Venue specifics are not listed in the supplied facts; the timing and tournament context are the only confirmed logistical details[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Colombia arrive with a recent record showing a single match return of W last 1 (W-D-L pattern) and the underlying per-match output reads 3.00 points per game, 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded[^fact-4]. That short-run profile signals an attack currently firing and a defence conceding at a modest rate[^fact-4]. Congo DR’s recent three-game sample is DWW (W-D-L pattern) with 2.33 points per game, 1.00 goal scored and 0.33 conceded per match, a cleaner defensive snapshot but lower attacking output compared with Colombia[^fact-5]. The model places a clear probability advantage on the home side: Home 61% / Draw 21% / Away 18%, and it reports high confidence in that ranking with a 40 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That aligns with the Elo differential, where Colombia hold an edge of +125 points after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. The combination of Elo and the model’s percentage split points to a substantive pre-match gap favouring Colombia on form and rating evidence[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Colombia’s most in-form player in the supplied facts is Luis Díaz, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 1 appearance and an average rating of 8.54 across that sample[^fact-6]. That raw impact — a direct goal contribution and a high match rating — underpins the attacking numbers listed for Colombia[^fact-4][^fact-6]. Congo DR’s in-form figure in the facts is Yoane Wissa, who registered 1 goal in his last appearance and holds an average rating of 7.23 for that outing[^fact-7]. Wissa’s presence explains part of Congo DR’s goal-scoring metric in the recent window[^fact-5][^fact-7]. No other personnel details, injury lists or suspensions are provided in the facts supplied; absence analysis cannot be performed beyond noting the two highlighted in-form players[^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s probabilities — Home 61% / Draw 21% / Away 18% — are the central pricing signal used against market lines in the supplied analysis[^fact-2]. Markets analysed numbered three in the comparison set, giving a small sample of market views to contrast with the model[^fact-8]. Two practical edges emerge directly from the supplied numbers. First, the model’s clear home preference (61%) sits on top of a +125 Elo advantage, which is a large rating gap once home advantage is included; those twin metrics together constitute the model’s principal justification for favouring the home side[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Second, the recent-form profiles show Colombia with superior attacking output (3.00 goals per match in the listed sample) while Congo DR display a tighter defensive rate (0.33 conceded per match in the supplied sample) — the model therefore prices Colombia as likeliest winners despite a measurable defensive resilience from Congo DR[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Markets analysed are noted but not detailed in the facts; the comparison therefore reduces to a difference in emphasis: the model weights the Elo and Colombia’s attacking numbers more heavily, while the marketplaces under review (three of them) are the referenced comparators without explicit odds quoted here[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-8]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side, assigning a 61% chance to a Colombia win and showing high confidence with a 40-point gap to the next outcome — that lean is consistent with a +125 Elo edge and Colombia’s stronger attacking numbers in the supplied samples[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. Congo DR’s recent defensive stinginess and the form of Yoane Wissa are the clearest counterpoints, but they do not overturn the model’s advantage on the supplied metrics[^fact-5][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 24 Jun 2026, 02:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 61% / Draw 21% / Away 18% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — COL vs COD — Elo differential +125 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **COL recent form** — W last 1: 1-0-0 (W-D-L), 3.00 PPG, 3.00 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **COD recent form** — DWW last 3: 2-1-0 (W-D-L), 2.33 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 0.33 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **COL in-form player** — Luis Díaz — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 8.54. [^fact-7]: **COD in-form player** — Yoane Wissa — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 1 appearances, avg rating 7.23. [^fact-8]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .