# Scotland vs Brazil > World Cup · Kickoff Wed 24 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/36993) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Scotland 0–3 Brazil ## Model verdict - **Scotland win:** 49% - **Draw:** 20% - **Brazil win:** 32% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge gives Scotland narrow model lead against Brazil ## The stage This World Cup fixture kicks off on Wed 24 Jun 2026 at 22:00 UTC. [^fact-1] The match is presented as a group-stage/high-stakes World Cup outing in the supplied facts, with kickoff time explicitly given. [^fact-1] The model assigns a clear single-game probability split: Home 49% / Draw 20% / Away 32%. [^fact-2] That home tilt is reflected in the Elo-adjusted matchup, where Scotland carries an 86-point edge after home advantage is applied. [^fact-3] ## Form & momentum Recent results paint Scotland as steady but unspectacular, with a sequence logged as LWWL over the last four outings — recorded in the supplied form string as two wins, one draw and one loss — equating to 1.50 points per game and goals numbers of 1.75 scored and 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-4] Brazil’s short-term form is compact but sharp in the available facts: a W-D sequence in the last two, shown as WD, producing 2.00 points per game and averaging 2.00 goals scored while conceding 0.50 per match. [^fact-5] Putting those lines together, the model still prefers the home side despite Brazil’s superior goals-for and defensive numbers in the sample — the model’s explicit probabilities put Scotland as the single most likely outcome at 49%. [^fact-2] The Elo differential after home advantage (Scotland +86) offers the structural explanation carried in the supplied dataset. [^fact-3] ## Personnel Scotland’s most notable in-form name in the supplied facts is John McGinn, who registered 1 goal and 0 assists across his last two appearances and an average rating of 6.85 in those matches. [^fact-7] Brazil’s form player in the available facts is Vinicius Junior, who has 2 goals and 1 assist in his last two appearances and an average rating of 7.45 across that pair. [^fact-8] The supplied facts do not list specific absences or squad omissions for either side, so no heavy absences are stated in the dataset provided. [^fact-4] ## Where the model sees value Markets compared against the model total three in number, per the supplied analysis set. [^fact-9] The clearest edge in the provided market comparison is on Under 2.5 goals: the model gives Under 2.5 a 54% probability versus a market price shown as 2.00 at Sbo, producing an edge of 4.4 percentage points; the supplied note flags this as low confidence. [^fact-6] The model’s own match win probabilities (49% home, 20% draw, 32% away) are the baseline that create that under/over projection in the model’s book. [^fact-2] No other market edges are detailed in the supplied facts beyond the three markets analysed, so the Under 2.5 figure is the single specific market advantage identified in the dataset. [^fact-9] ## Verdict The model leans to the home side — Scotland — at 49% while treating a Brazil win as less likely at 32%, with a draw at 20%, and the Elo sheet gives Scotland an 86-point advantage once home status is included; those are the core drivers behind the model’s lean. [^fact-2] [^fact-3] On the markets shown, the only quantified edge in the supplied facts is a modest, low-confidence tilt toward Under 2.5 goals (model 54% vs market price 2.00 at Sbo; edge 4.4 pp). [^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 24 Jun 2026, 22:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 49% / Draw 20% / Away 32% (source: model; confidence high, 17 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SCO vs BRA — Elo differential +86 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SCO recent form** — LWWL last 4: 2-0-2 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.75 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **BRA recent form** — WD last 2: 1-1-0 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 0.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.00 at Sbo, edge 4.4 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **SCO in-form player** — John McGinn — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 6.85. [^fact-8]: **BRA in-form player** — Vinicius Junior — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 7.45. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .