# Curacao vs Côte d'Ivoire > World Cup · Kickoff Thu 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/36998) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Curacao 0–2 Côte d'Ivoire ## Model verdict - **Curacao win:** 31% - **Draw:** 20% - **Côte d'Ivoire win:** 49% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Visitors clear model favourites as tight game looks likely ## The stage This World Cup fixture kicks off on Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 20:00 UTC, a match that sits squarely in the tournament phase where one result can reshape group math[^fact-1]. The setting increases the stakes for both sides and frames every strategic choice around risk management rather than flamboyant expansion play. ## Form & momentum The model gives the away side the clear edge: Away 49% versus Home 31% and Draw 20%, with a high-confidence 18-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. That projection is consistent with the Elo differential, which has the home side behind by 83 points after accounting for home advantage[^fact-3]. Recent results underline the narrower margins behind those ratings. Curacao arrive with a mixed set of outcomes over their last four, recording one win, two draws and one loss (1-2-1) and averaging 1.25 points per game; they score 2.00 goals per match while conceding 1.75 across that sample[^fact-4]. Côte d'Ivoire's shorter recent run shows one win and one loss in the last two (1-0-1), with 1.50 points per game and a clean split of 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Taken together, the model and the Elo rating favour the visitors, but form numbers suggest these will not be runaway affairs: Curacao produce a higher goals-scored rate in recent outings, while Côte d'Ivoire are slightly more efficient defensively in their limited sample[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Curacao's in-form attacking option to watch is Livano Comenencia, who has 1 goal and 0 assists across his last two appearances and carries an average match rating of 6.87 in those games[^fact-7]. For Côte d'Ivoire, Wilfried Singo stands out for recent contributions with 0 goals, 1 assist and an average rating of 7.30 over his last two outings[^fact-8]. The supplied facts do not include information about injuries or suspensions, so squad availability cannot be assessed from the data provided. ## Where the model sees value The model finds a single clear market edge across the three markets analysed: the Under 2.5 goals line. The model assigns Under 2.5 a 54% probability against a market price of 2.60 at Unibet, producing an edge of 15.9 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6][^fact-9]. That stance aligns with the broader signals already laid out: the model prefers the away side but projects a contest that is not necessarily high-scoring. Curacao's recent scoring rate of 2.00 goals per match is tempered by conceding 1.75, while Côte d'Ivoire's recent matches show both scored and conceded at 1.00 per game[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The contrast between Curacao's attacking frequency and Côte d'Ivoire's lower-scoring recent footprint is consistent with a game that could trend under 2.5 when probabilities are aggregated by the model[^fact-6]. Markets analysed against the model total three, and the Under 2.5 line is the one where a meaningful edge was detected[^fact-9][^fact-6]. No other model-market edges are provided in the supplied facts. ## Verdict The model leans to the visitors as favourites while expecting a compact scoreline: Away 49% is the top choice, supported by an +83 Elo edge for the visitors after home adjustment, and the clearest market opportunity lies on Under 2.5 goals where the model shows a 54% probability versus the market's 2.60 price (edge 15.9 pp)[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 25 Jun 2026, 20:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 31% / Draw 20% / Away 49% (source: model; confidence high, 18 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CUW vs CIV — Elo differential +83 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CUW recent form** — DLDW last 4: 1-2-1 (W-D-L), 1.25 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 1.75 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CIV recent form** — LW last 2: 1-0-1 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.60 at Unibet, edge 15.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **CUW in-form player** — Livano Comenencia — 1 goals, 0 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 6.87. [^fact-8]: **CIV in-form player** — Wilfried Singo — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .