# Tunisia vs Netherlands > World Cup · Kickoff Thu 25 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/36999) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands ## Model verdict - **Tunisia win:** 41% - **Draw:** 16% - **Netherlands win:** 43% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Underdog Tunisia's defensive test against clinical Dutch attack ## The stage A decisive World Cup group test kicks off on Thu 25 Jun 2026 at 23:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture sits squarely in tournament mode: both sides need a result to reshape their path through the group, with kickoff time confirmed in the supplied facts[^fact-1]. The supplied facts do not include a venue, so tactical conditions and pitch specifics are not part of this briefing. ## Form & momentum The model produces a remarkably tight three-way picture between a home edge and an away favourite: Home 41% / Draw 16% / Away 43%, and the model flags low confidence with a narrow 2 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. Elo, however, still tilts the raw expectation toward the visitors — an Elo differential of +30 points with home advantage applied in favour of the Netherlands[^fact-3]. That Elo edge sits alongside contrasting recent results. Tunisia arrive with two matches that read LL — a sequence equivalent to 0-0-2 (W-D-L) over the last two fixtures, generating 0.00 points per game and scoring an average of 0.50 goals while conceding 4.50 per match[^fact-4]. By contrast the Netherlands’ shorter run is WDWD — 2-2-0 (W-D-L) over four matches, yielding 2.00 points per game and an attacking/defensive profile of 3.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Put simply: recent momentum and defensive solidity favour the Netherlands by the numbers provided, even if the model’s outright probabilities keep the game close[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Personnel The supplied facts highlight two in-form individuals. Tunisia’s attacking spotlight lands on Hannibal, who has no goals and one assist across his last two appearances, with an average rating of 6.97 in those outings[^fact-7]. For the Netherlands the form signal is stronger: Cody Gakpo has two goals and one assist in his last two appearances and carries an average rating of 8.18[^fact-8]. These are the only player-level form inputs provided; there are no supplied facts detailing absences or other personnel changes, so matchday availability beyond those in-form figures is outside the scope of this note[^fact-7][^fact-8]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s clearest quantitative edge relative to market prices is on goals. Under 2.5 goals carries a model probability of 54% against a market price quoted at 2.75 with bet365 in the supplied facts, creating an 18.0 percentage-point edge and rated by the model as high confidence[^fact-6]. That is the single strongest market discrepancy flagged in the data; three markets were compared against the model in total, per the supplied analysis list[^fact-9]. Context for that under-bet comes from Tunisia’s recent scoring and conceding profile: they have produced only 0.50 goals per match while conceding 4.50 in the last two fixtures — numbers that pull the expected aggregate down if those defensive leaks are controlled in a single game[^fact-4]. The Netherlands’ trend shows a healthier attacking output (3.00 goals per match in the recent sample) but also a tight defence (1.00 conceded) that can suppress volatility[^fact-5]. Combining a low-scoring Tunisia run with a generally efficient Dutch backline is consistent with a model tilt toward sub-2.5 goals in the fixture, as reflected in the stated edge[^fact-6][^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Verdict The model leans marginally toward the Netherlands but treats the match as competitive — Away 43% vs Home 41%, with a draw at 16% and low confidence signalled by the narrow gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. Given the scoring trends and the single strong market discrepancy, the most robust quantitative signal from the supplied facts is that the match is likeliest to finish under 2.5 goals, where the model places a 54% probability against a market price of 2.75[^fact-6][^fact-2][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 25 Jun 2026, 23:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 41% / Draw 16% / Away 43% (source: model; confidence low, 2 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — TUN vs NED — Elo differential +30 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **TUN recent form** — LL last 2: 0-0-2 (W-D-L), 0.00 PPG, 0.50 goals scored / 4.50 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NED recent form** — WDWD last 4: 2-2-0 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 3.00 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.75 at bet365, edge 18.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **TUN in-form player** — Hannibal — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 6.97. [^fact-8]: **NED in-form player** — Cody Gakpo — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 8.18. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .