# Türkiye vs United States > World Cup · Kickoff Fri 26 Jun 2026, 02:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37002) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Türkiye 3–2 United States ## Model verdict - **Türkiye win:** 26% - **Draw:** 18% - **United States win:** 55% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### United States favored; model points to a low-scoring game ## The stage This is a World Cup group fixture kicking off Fri 26 Jun 2026, 02:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The match sits squarely in tournament group-stage territory where each result reshapes qualification permutations; the supplied facts frame the contest purely through model probabilities and recent form rather than fixture history[^fact-1][^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum The quantitative picture tilts decisively towards the visitors: the model gives the away side a 55% chance, with the home win and draw trailing at 26% and 18% respectively — the model’s top pick sits 29 percentage points clear of the runner-up, a high-confidence separation[^fact-2]. The Elo differential, with home advantage already applied, still favors the away side by +30 points[^fact-3], reinforcing the model’s lean. Recent on-pitch form paints a similar story. Türkiye’s last six matches read LLWWD (3-1-2 W-D-L) with 1.67 points per game, 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per match[^fact-4]. The United States arrive on the back of two straight wins, recorded as WW in the supplied summary, delivering 3.00 points per game with 3.00 goals scored and just 0.50 conceded per match over that span[^fact-5]. Those short-form numbers show the U.S. in sharper attacking and defensive rhythm across the most recent sample in the facts set[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel In-form spotlights are clear in the supplied facts. For Türkiye, the playmaking engine to watch is Hakan Çalhanoğlu — his last two appearances show 0 goals and 0 assists but an average rating of 7.74, marking him as the team’s highest-rated recent performer in the facts provided[^fact-7]. For the United States, Alex Freeman carries visible momentum: 1 goal and 1 assist in his last two appearances with an average rating of 7.44[^fact-8]. Heaviest absences for either side are not listed in the supplied facts, so personnel analysis must stay focused on these form indicators and the model’s outputs rather than roster gaps[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model highlights a specific market edge on totals. Under 2.5 goals is the top value pick: the model rates Under 2.5 at 54% versus a market price implying around 46% (listed at 2.17 on Sbo), giving an edge of 8.3 percentage points and flagged with high confidence in the supplied facts[^fact-6]. That sits alongside the model’s broader match-probability view that leans to an away win, but the totals call suggests the model expects the United States to win without a high-goal shootout[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Markets analysed in the comparison number three, indicating the model examined multiple lines against available market pricing in reaching its edges[^fact-9]. The clearest quantified mismatch from those comparisons is the Under 2.5 line, which combines the model’s probability distribution with a market price that the model perceives as too generous to the Over[^fact-6][^fact-9]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is an away win at 55%, amplified by a meaningful Elo edge of +30 points in favor of the visitors and recent U.S. form that shows both attacking punch and defensive solidity[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5]. Simultaneously, the best market inefficiency sits on Under 2.5 goals, where the model’s 54% probability produces an 8.3 percentage-point edge against the quoted 2.17 market price[^fact-6][^fact-2]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 26 Jun 2026, 02:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 26% / Draw 18% / Away 55% (source: model; confidence high, 29 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — TUR vs USA — Elo differential +30 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **TUR recent form** — LLWWD last 6: 3-1-2 (W-D-L), 1.67 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 0.83 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **USA recent form** — WW last 2: 2-0-0 (W-D-L), 3.00 PPG, 3.00 goals scored / 0.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.17 at Sbo, edge 8.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **TUR in-form player** — Hakan Çalhanoğlu  — 0 goals, 0 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 7.74. [^fact-8]: **USA in-form player** — Alex Freeman — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 7.44. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .