# Senegal vs Iraq > World Cup · Kickoff Fri 26 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37004) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Senegal win:** 60% - **Draw:** 19% - **Iraq win:** 20% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.55 | Pinnacle | 54% | +15.2 pp | | h2h | Home | 1.46 | Dafabet | 78% | +9.3 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Favourites with defensive questions and clear market edges ## The stage This World Cup group fixture kicks off on Fri 26 Jun 2026 at 19:00 UTC, a match that the model treats as a narrow but clear home favourite on the day[^fact-1][^fact-2]. The timing and tournament context raise the stakes for both sides to collect points in a compact window. ## Form & momentum Recent form pulls in opposite directions. Senegal arrive on the back of two results recorded as 0-0-2 in their last two matches (W-D-L), producing 0.00 points per game, scoring 1.50 goals and conceding 3.00 per match in that sample[^fact-4]. Iraq’s short-term trend reads LLWWD over five (2-1-2), giving them 1.40 points per game with 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model’s overall probability split puts the home side comfortably ahead: Home 60% / Draw 19% / Away 20%, with a reported 40 percentage-point gap to the runner-up, signalling a high-confidence lean[^fact-2]. That aligns with a substantive Elo gap — Senegal carry a +124 Elo differential over Iraq once home advantage is applied[^fact-3] — a structural edge that helps explain why the model favours the hosts despite mixed recent results. ## Personnel Two clear in-form spotlights stand out from the supplied figures. Ismaïla Sarr has scored 2 goals in his last 2 appearances and sits on an average rating of 6.98 across those games[^fact-8]. On the Iraq side, Amir Al-Ammari has contributed 1 assist across his last 2 appearances with an average rating of 6.64[^fact-9]. The facts supplied focus on those attacking contributions and short-term ratings; there are no entries in the supplied dataset about squad absences or suspension lists, so match-day availability cannot be adjusted for here. ## Where the model sees value Two market edges stand out when comparing the model to available prices in the supplied facts. - Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 54% probability to fewer than 2.5 goals, while the market price at Pinnacle implies a lower chance via an O/U quote of 2.55; that produces an edge of 15.2 percentage points and is flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. Given the recent numbers — Senegal’s elevated goals conceded per match and Iraq’s modest scoring rate — the under angle is visible from both sides of the ledger[^fact-4][^fact-5]. - Home match winner: the model’s internal probability for the home win is 78% against a market price of 1.46 at Dafabet, yielding a 9.3 percentage-point edge (high confidence)[^fact-7]. That sits above the model’s headline 60% home probability because the 78% figure is the model’s assessment used to compute value versus that specific market quote[^fact-2][^fact-7]. Three markets were explicitly compared against the model in the supplied dataset, and the two value calls above are the principal edges extracted from that exercise[^fact-10][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side: a clear Elo cushion (+124) and a high-confidence model verdict put the home win in the driver’s seat while the expected scoreline skews toward a low-scoring game[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6]. Ismaïla Sarr’s recent finishing form is the primary attacking threat cited for the home side; Iraq’s momentum is steadier than Senegal’s immediate results suggest, but the supplied analytics favour the hosts going into kickoff[^fact-8][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 26 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC — World Cup [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 60% / Draw 19% / Away 20% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SEN vs IRQ — Elo differential +124 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SEN recent form** — LL last 2: 0-0-2 (W-D-L), 0.00 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 3.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **IRQ recent form** — LLWWD last 5: 2-1-2 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.55 at Pinnacle, edge 15.2 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Home in Match Winner — model 78% vs market price 1.46 at Dafabet, edge 9.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **SEN in-form player** — Ismaïla Sarr — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 6.98. [^fact-9]: **IRQ in-form player** — Amir Al-Ammari — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 2 appearances, avg rating 6.64. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .