# Sirius vs Mjällby > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Fri 3 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37028) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Sirius 4–4 Mjällby ## Model verdict - **Sirius win:** 19% - **Draw:** 15% - **Mjällby win:** 66% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Visitors profit from form gap as model signals decisive lean ## The stage This Allsvenskan fixture kicks off Fri 3 Jul 2026 at 17:00 UTC, slotting into the mid-season run of fixtures where league position swings quickly[^fact-1]. Venue specifics are not supplied in the facts; focus rests on the model's competitive view of the two sides[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum SIR arrive on a remarkable streak, winning all five of their most recent matches and posting a last-10 record of 9-1-0 (W-D-L), yielding 2.80 points per game and an attacking output of 2.70 goals scored per match while conceding 1.00[^fact-4]. Mjällby come into the game with a mixed run: DDLWW in their last five and a 10-match record of 4-3-3 (W-D-L), delivering 1.50 points per game with 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model assigns a substantial Elo advantage to SIR, applying home advantage to produce a +68 Elo differential in their favour[^fact-3]. Despite that Elo edge, the model's overall probability split favours the away side: Home 19% / Draw 15% / Away 66%, with the model reporting high confidence and a 47 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. In short, recent domestic form and Elo point to SIR as the stronger side, but the model's calibrated probabilities currently favour the away team according to its internal adjustments[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel SIR's most visible attacking spark is Isak Bjerkebo, who has 4 goals and 1 assist in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.48 across that sequence[^fact-7]. Mjällby's current form focal point is Jacob Bergström, with 3 goals in his last five appearances and an average rating of 7.07[^fact-8]. The clearest reported absence on the SIR side is August Ljungberg, who is out injured and therefore not available for selection[^fact-9]. No other individual injuries or suspensions are listed in the supplied facts, so matchday squads beyond these names remain unspecified in the data. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies one market edge highlighted against public pricing: Over 2.5 goals. The model probabilities put Over 2.5 at 64%, compared with a market price implying about 1.67 on offer at 10Bet, producing a model-market edge of 3.9 percentage points (classified with low confidence by the model)[^fact-6]. The markets compared to the model consist of three distinct markets analysed by the model in this dataset[^fact-10]. This over/under call aligns with SIR's recent attacking rate of 2.70 goals scored per match over their last 10 and Mjällby's concession rate of 1.10 per match, which together point toward open games in the supplied numbers[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model nonetheless flags its confidence on the Over 2.5 pick as low, so the edge should be contextualised within that uncertainty[^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the away side with a 66% probability, despite SIR's +68 Elo edge and dominant recent form — a clear tension between Elo/form metrics and the model's broader inputs[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Key matchups to watch in match flow will be Isak Bjerkebo for SIR and Jacob Bergström for Mjällby, while the absence of August Ljungberg removes a named option from the SIR sheet[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9]. The single market the model flags as a value opportunity is Over 2.5 goals at a model probability of 64% versus the market's 1.67 at 10Bet, though the model labels that edge with low confidence and notes three markets were compared overall[^fact-6][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 3 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 19% / Draw 15% / Away 66% (source: model; confidence high, 47 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SIR vs Mjällby — Elo differential +68 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SIR recent form** — WWWWW last 10: 9-1-0 (W-D-L), 2.80 PPG, 2.70 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Mjällby recent form** — DDLWW last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 64% vs market price 1.67 at 10Bet, edge 3.9 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **SIR in-form player** — Isak Bjerkebo — 4 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.48. [^fact-8]: **Mjällby in-form player** — Jacob Bergström — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.07. [^fact-9]: **SIR key absence** — August Ljungberg out (injury). [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .