# Elfsborg vs Hammarby > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sun 5 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37038) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Elfsborg 1–2 Hammarby ## Model verdict - **Elfsborg win:** 19% - **Draw:** 27% - **Hammarby win:** 53% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Visiting side holds clear statistical edge in low-scoring clash ## The stage This Allsvenskan fixture kicks off Sun 5 Jul 2026 at 14:30 UTC and pits the home side against a team the model rates as clear favourites[^fact-1][^fact-2]. The timing places this in the middle of the Swedish summer schedule, and the shape of the tie is defined more by form lines and defensive indicators than by attacking fireworks[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Form & momentum Recent runs point toward an away tilt. The model gives the home side a 19% chance, a draw 27%, and the visitors 53% — a decisive lean with a 26 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That sits alongside an Elo differential of -51 in favour of the visitors once home advantage is applied, signalling a meaningful quality gap between the sides on paper[^fact-3]. Elfsborg’s last 10 matches read D D D D W, with an overall 3-6-1 record (W-D-L), producing 1.50 points per game and averaging 1.40 goals scored while conceding 1.10 per match[^fact-4]. Hammarby have been more inconsistent in sequence but pick up slightly different attacking numbers: L L L W W over the last 10 with a 4-2-4 record, 1.40 points per game, and a higher goals-scored rate of 2.10 while conceding 1.30 per match[^fact-5]. The visitors therefore show both the superior Elo projection and the higher attacking output across the sample, even if short-term results include spikes and troughs[^fact-3][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Elfsborg’s most in-form attacking presence is Leo Östman: four goals and zero assists in his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.51 across that run[^fact-8]. For the visitors, Nahir Besara arrives with three goals and one assist in his last five and an average rating of 7.81, the higher individual rating reflecting his recent influence in the final third[^fact-9]. Defensive continuity will be an issue for both sides in different ways. Elfsborg will be without Sebastian Holmén due to suspension; he logged 593 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes experienced minutes from the backline[^fact-10]. Hammarby are missing Sourou Koné through injury, a selection concern that will shape the visitors’ defensive options[^fact-11]. Those absences change squad balance but do not, on the supplied data, reverse the model’s broader projection[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Where the model sees value Value emerges on low-scoring, structured outcomes. The model favours Under 2.5 goals with a 73% probability versus a market price of 2.14 at Sbo, an edge of 25.9 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. That dovetails with the model’s separate projection that both teams will not score (No on BTTS) at 66% probability versus a market price of 2.20 at 888Sport, an edge of 20.3 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-7]. Both value plays are coherent with the underlying match signals: a low goals-against rate for Elfsborg in the sample and a modest PPG profile, plus an Elo gap and model tilt toward the visitors that still expects a controlled, non-free-scoring game[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. Markets compared against the model total three in the analysis, and the two highest-confidence edges sit on Under 2.5 and No BTTS[^fact-12][^fact-6][^fact-7]. The combination of recent defensive numbers, the specific player absences, and the model’s probabilities produces a clear statistical argument for expecting a lower aggregate scoreline and at least one clean sheet among the pair[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-10][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the visitors (Away 53% vs Home 19%), supported by a -51 Elo differential and a cluster of low-scoring indicators; premium value registers on Under 2.5 goals and No BTTS where the model finds sizeable edges to public market prices[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 5 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 19% / Draw 27% / Away 53% (source: model; confidence high, 26 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ELF vs HAM — Elo differential -51 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ELF recent form** — DDDDW last 10: 3-6-1 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **HAM recent form** — LLLWW last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 2.10 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 73% vs market price 2.14 at Sbo, edge 25.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 66% vs market price 2.20 at 888Sport, edge 20.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **ELF in-form player** — Leo Östman — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.51. [^fact-9]: **HAM in-form player** — Nahir Besara — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.81. [^fact-10]: **ELF key absence** — Sebastian Holmén out (suspension), 593 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **HAM key absence** — Sourou Koné out (injury). [^fact-12]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .