# Häcken vs Djurgården > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Mon 6 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37042) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Häcken 2–4 Djurgården ## Model verdict - **Häcken win:** 48% - **Draw:** 26% - **Djurgården win:** 27% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Elo edge and attacking form point towards goals ## The stage Häcken host Djurgården in Allsvenskan with kickoff scheduled for Mon 6 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC[^fact-1]. This is a home fixture for Häcken and enters the model as the single most likely outcome, but with a close distribution between home and away outcomes[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent sequences give Häcken an energetic spine: WDWWD in their last 10 matches, a 5-5-0 W-D-L split and an output of 2.00 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.40 per match[^fact-4]. Djurgården arrive on a mixed run of LLWWD in their last 10, a 5-1-4 W-D-L split with 1.60 points per game, scoring 2.20 and also conceding 1.40 per match[^fact-5]. On Elo terms the model still grants Häcken a material advantage — an Elo differential of +95 points after adjusting for home advantage[^fact-3]. The model’s verdict converts those inputs into probabilities: Home 48%, Draw 26%, Away 27%, with a 21 percentage-point gap to the runner-up at high confidence[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Häcken’s recent attacking spark is Silas Andersen, who has produced 3 goals and 0 assists across his last five appearances while carrying an average rating of 7.37 in those games[^fact-8]. For Djurgården the creative throttle has been B. Hegland, who registered 1 goal and 6 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.64[^fact-9]. No specific absences or injury details are recorded in the supplied facts, so the analysis proceeds from form and modelling inputs alone[^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Two market edges stand out from the model’s comparison to available odds. First, Over 2.5 goals is a clear value read: the model projects Over 2.5 at 84% versus a market price of 1.57 on 10Bet, an edge of 20.3 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. The same offensive signals underpin the second edge: Both Teams to Score (Yes) is modelled at 80% against a market price of 1.47 on Betfair, an edge of 12.1 percentage points also given high confidence[^fact-7]. The model compared three market lines in total when identifying these opportunities[^fact-10]. These edges reflect both teams’ recent goalscoring profiles — Häcken’s 2.00 goals per match and Djurgården’s 2.20 goals per match across their last ten fixtures — and the identical 1.40 goals conceded per match that suggests this will be open rather than cagey[^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans to Häcken at home (48%) after applying an Elo cushion of +95 points, but it frames the match chiefly as an inclination toward goals: strong statistical backing for Over 2.5 (84%) and Both Teams to Score (80%) are the clearest edges versus the quoted market prices[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6][^fact-7]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Mon 6 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 48% / Draw 26% / Away 27% (source: model; confidence high, 21 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HAC vs DJU — Elo differential +95 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HAC recent form** — WDWWD last 10: 5-5-0 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DJU recent form** — LLWWD last 10: 5-1-4 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 84% vs market price 1.57 at 10Bet, edge 20.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Value pick #2** — Yes in Both Teams to Score — model 80% vs market price 1.47 at Betfair, edge 12.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-8]: **HAC in-form player** — Silas Andersen — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.37. [^fact-9]: **DJU in-form player** — B. Hegland — 1 goals, 6 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.64. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .