# Mjällby vs AIK > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sat 11 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37049) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Mjällby 1–2 AIK ## Model verdict - **Mjällby win:** 69% - **Draw:** 16% - **AIK win:** 15% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Clear home advantage looms as model heavily favours hosts ## The stage Kickoff is Sat 11 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC in an Allsvenskan fixture[^fact-1]. The fixture reads as a one-sided probability contest in the model’s view: the home side is rated 69%, draw 16% and away 15% in the pre-match distribution[^fact-2]. Those percentages frame this as a match where the home advantage is a decisive factor rather than a marginal one[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results and underlying numbers reinforce the model’s bias. Mjällby arrive with a last-10 sequence recorded as DDDLW (4-4-2 W-D-L), yielding 1.60 points per game and averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per match[^fact-4]. AIK’s last-10 read WLWDL (3-3-4 W-D-L), with 1.20 points per game and a contrasting 1.20 goals scored versus 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The baseline comparison underlines Mjällby as the cleaner team in attack and the one conceding fewer goals on average across the sample — both figures used by the model to form its edge[^fact-4][^fact-5]. Elo makes the gulf explicit: with home advantage applied the Elo differential stands at +301 points in favour of the hosts[^fact-3]. That magnitude of Elo gap is substantial by any objective metric and corroborates the model’s 69% home probability rather than a coin-flip outcome[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Mjällby’s most obvious form reference is Jeppe Kjær, who has contributed 2 goals and 0 assists in his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.11 across that sample[^fact-7]. That attacking output fits the team’s higher goals-per-game figure in recent form[^fact-4][^fact-7]. AIK’s notable in-form contributor is Áron Csongvai, who has 1 goal and 1 assist in his last five appearances and holds an average rating of 7.12 for that period[^fact-8]. His numbers show an important attacking presence for AIK, but the team’s overall goals-per-game in the same timeframe is lower than Mjällby’s average[^fact-5][^fact-8]. The heaviest single absence in the contest is Ibrahim Cissé for AIK, listed out injured after contributing 630 minutes in the recent run[^fact-9]. That loss is salient because the minutes figure establishes Cissé as a regular presence prior to the absence, and his unavailability is explicitly noted in the model inputs and the scouting brief[^fact-9]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s strongest market edge is Home in Match Winner: model probability 73% versus a market price of 2.01 at Dafabet, producing a 23.7 percentage-point edge and described with high confidence[^fact-6]. That single-market comparison is drawn from three markets analysed against the model’s probabilities[^fact-10][^fact-6]. This value claim sits on top of the broader model judgment: a 69% baseline home probability and a separate 73% match-winner projection when translated into the specific market price both point to a consistent pattern of the model backing the hosts[^fact-2][^fact-6]. The 301-point Elo advantage further underpins why the model can assign such a large home probability without overstating uncertainty[^fact-3]. No alternative markets are quoted here beyond the top edge; the model’s comparative analysis spanned three markets in total, and the standout discrepancy is the home match-winner line at the cited bookmaker[^fact-10][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the hosts: home probability 69% with a stronger 73% projection versus the market on the match-winner line, supported by a +301 Elo edge, superior recent goals-for/against profile, and the absence of a regular AIK contributor who logged 630 minutes in the recent run[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 11 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 69% / Draw 16% / Away 15% (source: model; confidence high, 53 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Mjällby vs AIK — Elo differential +301 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Mjällby recent form** — DDDLW last 10: 4-4-2 (W-D-L), 1.60 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **AIK recent form** — WLWDL last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 73% vs market price 2.01 at Dafabet, edge 23.7 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Mjällby in-form player** — Jeppe Kjær — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.11. [^fact-8]: **AIK in-form player** — Áron Csongvai — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.12. [^fact-9]: **AIK key absence** — Ibrahim Cissé out (injury), 630 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .