# Rosenborg vs Kristiansund > Eliteserien · Kickoff Sun 12 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37062) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Rosenborg 3–0 Kristiansund ## Model verdict - **Rosenborg win:** 58% - **Draw:** 22% - **Kristiansund win:** 19% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and defensive market inefficiency shape expectations ## The stage This is an Eliteserien fixture kicking off on Sun 12 Jul 2026 at 15:00 UTC, with home advantage applied to one side in the model.[^fact-1][^fact-3] ## Form & momentum Recent sequences suggest neither side is running hot. Rosenborg's last 10 matches read DLLWL, a 2-3-5 split of wins, draws and losses, producing 0.90 points per game and an average of 0.90 goals scored against 1.60 conceded per match.[^fact-4] Kristiansund's last 10 are LLWLL, a 2-2-6 record, yielding 0.80 points per game with 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded on average.[^fact-5] The Elo differential, after factoring in home advantage, gives a clear edge to the home side: +134 points in Elo terms.[^fact-3] That margin aligns with a model that favours the hosts — the model's probability split is Home 58% / Draw 22% / Away 19%, with a stated high confidence and a 36 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome.[^fact-2] Taken together, the data point to a modest but meaningful home advantage and a game profile that has seen both teams struggle for consistent attacking output across recent fixtures.[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Personnel Rosenborg's most in-form attacking influence on the numbers is Amin Chiakha, who has 2 goals and no assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 6.84 over that span.[^fact-7] That scoring contribution is a notable part of Rosenborg's limited goals return in recent games.[^fact-4][^fact-7] Kristiansund's forward spark is L. Alvheim, who has 3 goals and no assists in his last five appearances and an average rating of 6.79 in that window.[^fact-8] His scoring form accounts for a significant share of Kristiansund's modest attacking figures reflected across the past ten matches.[^fact-5][^fact-8] Both teams carry important absences into the clash. Rosenborg will be without Ole Selnæs through injury; he logged 514 minutes in the recent run before missing time.[^fact-9] Kristiansund are missing N. Ødegård, who accumulated 334 minutes in the recent run prior to his injury absence.[^fact-10] Those minutes figures indicate both teams lose players who were regularly involved in recent line-ups, which matters more in low-scoring fixtures where marginal personnel shifts alter game management. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies a strong market edge on the both-teams-to-score market: a 73% model probability for No in Both Teams to Score versus a market price of 2.15 at 888Sport, producing an edge of 26.6 percentage points and flagged with high confidence.[^fact-6] Given the recent goalscoring rates — Rosenborg 0.90 goals per match and Kristiansund 0.80 — and both sides conceding 1.60 per match, the model's No projection is coherent with a low-offence expectation from both camps.[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6] The model's primary match-probability view (Home 58% / Draw 22% / Away 19%) also provides context for market comparison across three markets examined against the model.[^fact-2][^fact-11] Those comparisons underpin the No BTTS edge as the standout discrepancy between model and market pricing in this card.[^fact-6][^fact-11] ## Verdict The model leans to the home side, assigning a 58% chance to a home win supported by a +134 Elo advantage with home factored in; the match profile is low-scoring on recent evidence for both teams, and the clearest market inefficiency is on No for Both Teams to Score, where the model projects 73% against a 2.15 market price.[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 12 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC — Eliteserien [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 58% / Draw 22% / Away 19% (source: model; confidence high, 36 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Rosenborg vs Kristiansund — Elo differential +134 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Rosenborg recent form** — DLLWL last 10: 2-3-5 (W-D-L), 0.90 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Kristiansund recent form** — LLWLL last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 73% vs market price 2.15 at 888Sport, edge 26.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Rosenborg in-form player** — Amin Chiakha — 2 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.84. [^fact-8]: **Kristiansund in-form player** — L. Alvheim — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.79. [^fact-9]: **Rosenborg key absence** — Ole Selnæs out (injury), 514 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Kristiansund key absence** — N. Ødegård out (injury), 334 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .