# CF Montréal vs Toronto > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Thu 16 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37069) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** CF Montréal 0–0 Toronto ## Model verdict - **CF Montréal win:** 46% - **Draw:** 24% - **Toronto win:** 30% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Narrow home edge, low-scoring tilt expected under the lights ## The stage This is a midweek Major League Soccer fixture kicking off Thu 16 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC[^fact-1]. The scheduling and competition place both teams under familiar calendar pressure, with the timestamp above serving as the only fixed logistical detail provided[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent forms are tightly matched but slightly in Montreal’s favour. CF Montréal have a 10-game sequence reading DLDWL, which translates to a 3-2-5 split (W-D-L) and 1.10 points per game, with 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded on average per match[^fact-4]. Toronto’s last 10 are LLLDL, a 2-4-4 record and 1.00 points per game, with 1.80 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per match[^fact-5]. The model assigns a clear but not overwhelming home edge: 46% for the home side, 24% draw and 30% for the away side — a 16 percentage-point cushion to the model’s top pick and an indication of high confidence in that ranking[^fact-2]. That aligns with an Elo differential that favors the hosts by +102 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Together, the model probabilities and the +102 Elo gap point to a match where expectation tilts to the home team but leaves enough volatility for an upset[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel CF Montréal’s in-form reference is Prince Owusu, who has contributed 3 goals and 2 assists across his last five appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.37 for that span[^fact-7]. For Toronto, the attacking spark in recent weeks has been Emilio Aristizábal, with 3 goals and a 7.06 average rating in his last five outings[^fact-8]. Availability issues shape both sides. CF Montréal will be without Olger Escobar through suspension; Escobar logged 200 minutes in the recent run prior to absence[^fact-9]. Toronto will be missing Josh Sargent through injury; Sargent accounted for 313 minutes in the recent run before this layoff[^fact-10]. Those minutes figures quantify the immediate-sized gaps on each roster and underline why situational fit and rotation will matter[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed against the model total three separate markets in this comparison[^fact-11]. The clearest standalone market edge is on the Under goals market: model probability for Under 2.5 goals is 54% while the market price at Betfair implies a lower probability via odds priced at 2.38, giving an edge of 12.4 percentage points and flagged as high confidence by the modelling team[^fact-6]. This value call coheres with both teams’ recent scoring and leaking rates: each side averages 1.80 goals scored in their last 10, and both concede about 2.10–2.20 goals per game in those stretches — a pattern that makes a tightly contested, low-scoring game plausible[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The model’s single-market edges were drawn from three comparisons overall, with the Under 2.5 finding the most material discrepancy versus market pricing[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans home: a 46% probability for CF Montréal, with a 24% draw and 30% for Toronto, and a +102 Elo edge when home advantage is applied[^fact-2][^fact-3]. Given similar offensive output but slightly better points per game and the absence of key individuals on both sides, the cleaner signal is a narrow home lean combined with an expectation of fewer than three goals[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 16 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 46% / Draw 24% / Away 30% (source: model; confidence high, 16 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — CFM vs TOR — Elo differential +102 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **CFM recent form** — DLDWL last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **TOR recent form** — LLLDL last 10: 2-4-4 (W-D-L), 1.00 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 2.20 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.38 at Betfair, edge 12.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **CFM in-form player** — Prince Owusu — 3 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.37. [^fact-8]: **TOR in-form player** — Emilio Aristizábal — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.06. [^fact-9]: **CFM key absence** — Olger Escobar out (suspension), 200 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **TOR key absence** — Josh Sargent  out (injury), 313 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .