# St. Louis City vs Sporting KC > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Fri 17 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37071) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** St. Louis City 3–2 Sporting KC ## Model verdict - **St. Louis City win:** 40% - **Draw:** 22% - **Sporting KC win:** 37% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Low-scoring affair tipped as home edge meets shaky defence ## The stage Major League Soccer action arrives with kick-off scheduled for Fri 17 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC. [^fact-1] St. Louis City will host Sporting KC, with the fixture carrying the usual three-way result probabilities the model produces. [^fact-1] The model assigns a slight preference to the home side but keeps the game finely poised. [^fact-2] ## Form & momentum Form tables paint sharply different shapes. St. Louis City’s recent results read WDWWL across the last 10 matches, yielding an effective 1.50 points per game and an identical 1.50 goals scored per match while conceding 1.40 on average. [^fact-4] Sporting KC arrive with a much rougher run: LWWLD in their last 10, worth just 0.70 points per game, scoring 1.00 and leaking 2.90 goals per match. [^fact-5] The raw Elo comparison amplifies that divergence: with home advantage applied the Elo edge sits at +122 for the home side. [^fact-3] Those layers together explain why the model favours the hosts, but only narrowly — the model’s probabilities are Home 40%, Draw 22%, Away 37%, a low-confidence lean with just a 3 percentage-point gap to the runner-up. [^fact-2] ## Personnel St. Louis City’s brightest attacking spark in recent outings has been Sang-bin Jeong, who has contributed 1 goal and 1 assist over his last three appearances and carries an average match rating of 7.06. [^fact-7] Sporting KC’s most productive recent presence is Calvin Harris, with 2 goals and 2 assists in his last five matches and an average rating of 7.02. [^fact-8] Availability will matter: St. Louis City will be without Célio Pompeu due to injury. [^fact-9] Sporting KC are missing Kwaku Agyabeng through injury as well; he featured for 180 minutes in the recent run prior to that absence. [^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value Market comparisons were run across three markets. [^fact-11] The clearest edge on the board is for the Under 2.5 goals market: the model prices Under 2.5 at 54% probability versus the market price available of 3.10 at Unibet, producing an edge of 22.1 percentage points — flagged high confidence by the model. [^fact-6] That view aligns with the defensive numbers: St. Louis City concedes only 1.40 goals per game in their recent sample while Sporting KC concedes 2.90, yet Sporting KC’s low scoring output and St. Louis City’s moderate scoring rate combine into a projection that favours fewer goals overall. [^fact-4][^fact-5] The tight model split on match result (40/22/37) makes result markets less decisive, and the analysis compared three markets in total against model outputs. [^fact-2][^fact-11] ## Verdict The model leans toward the home side but with low confidence — Home 40%, Draw 22%, Away 37% — so the clearest analytical signal is on match tenor rather than result. [^fact-2] Expect a competitive, low-scoring game where St. Louis City’s Elo advantage and steadier recent form set the baseline while Sporting KC’s defensive fragility and recent struggles suggest the match could be cagey rather than wide open. [^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Fri 17 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 40% / Draw 22% / Away 37% (source: model; confidence low, 3 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LOU vs SKC — Elo differential +122 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LOU recent form** — WDWWL last 10: 4-3-3 (W-D-L), 1.50 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SKC recent form** — LWWLD last 10: 2-1-7 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 2.90 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.10 at Unibet, edge 22.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **LOU in-form player** — Sang-bin Jeong — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 3 appearances, avg rating 7.06. [^fact-8]: **SKC in-form player** — Calvin Harris — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.02. [^fact-9]: **LOU key absence** — Célio Pompeu out (injury). [^fact-10]: **SKC key absence** — Kwaku Agyabeng out (injury), 180 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .