# Nashville SC vs Atlanta United > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 18 Jul 2026, 00:10 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37074) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Nashville SC 1–0 Atlanta United ## Model verdict - **Nashville SC win:** 42% - **Draw:** 25% - **Atlanta United win:** 34% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low-scoring profile tilt the balance in Nashville ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 18 Jul 2026, 00:10 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. This match carries the routine urgency of a regular-season fixture where points and form cycles matter more than cup drama; the model gives a clear, but not overwhelming, preference to the home side: Home 42% / Draw 25% / Away 34%[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Nashville arrive on the back of a run that reads WWWDD in their last 10, translating to a 7-2-1 record (W-D-L) and 2.30 points per game[^fact-4]. Their recent output is compact: 2.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match over that stretch[^fact-4]. Atlanta’s recent ten is more erratic: LDLWW, a 2-2-6 record (W-D-L) and just 0.80 points per game[^fact-5]. Offensively and defensively those numbers are stark — Atlanta averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match in the same sample[^fact-5]. The underlying quality gap the model sees is reinforced by an Elo differential of +133 in favour of the home side once home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. That combination of superior recent results and a sizable Elo edge argues Nashville are the clearer side in form and projection[^fact-3][^fact-4]. ## Personnel Nashville’s attacking form has a clear focal point: Warren Madrigal has three goals and one assist in his last five appearances, carrying an average match rating of 7.13 across that run[^fact-7]. For Atlanta, Aleksey Miranchuk is the primary creative outlet of note, with one goal and two assists in his last five and an average rating of 7.20[^fact-8]. Absences matter: Nashville will be without Patrick Yazbek through injury; he contributed 189 minutes in the recent run before the absence[^fact-9]. Atlanta are missing Ajani Fortune through suspension; Fortune logged 411 minutes in the recent period[^fact-10]. Those two absences remove consistent minutes from each side and will slightly alter rotation and matchup considerations[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market divergence flagged by the model is on total goals. The model rates Under 2.5 as the preferred outcome at 54%, against a market price of 2.23 on Unibet — an edge of 9.5 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6]. That view coheres with both teams’ recent scoring profiles: Nashville’s recent 2.30 goals for / 0.90 against sample and Atlanta’s 0.90 for / 1.50 against sample point toward a low-scoring game on average[^fact-4][^fact-5]. The matchup also sits within a small sample of market tests: three separate markets were compared against the model for this fixture[^fact-11]. Taken together, the model’s probability on the low total suggests market pricing is stretched on goals and merits attention relative to the model’s internal expectation[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side but not overwhelmingly: Home 42%, Draw 25%, Away 34%, with a mid-level confidence and an 8 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome[^fact-2]. The Elo gap of +133 and Nashville’s superior recent points and defensive numbers underpin that lean[^fact-3][^fact-4]. The clearest tactical expectation from the numbers is a low-scoring contest: the model’s 54% for Under 2.5 contrasts with market pricing and is the standout value signal here[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 18 Jul 2026, 00:10 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 42% / Draw 25% / Away 34% (source: model; confidence mid, 8 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NSH vs ATL — Elo differential +133 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NSH recent form** — WWWDD last 10: 7-2-1 (W-D-L), 2.30 PPG, 2.30 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ATL recent form** — LDLWW last 10: 2-2-6 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.23 at Unibet, edge 9.5 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **NSH in-form player** — Warren Madrigal — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.13. [^fact-8]: **ATL in-form player** — Aleksey Miranchuk — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.20. [^fact-9]: **NSH key absence** — Patrick Yazbek out (injury), 189 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **ATL key absence** — Ajani Fortune out (suspension), 411 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .