# Rot-Weiß Oberhausen vs Borussia Dortmund > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sat 18 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37086) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Rot-Weiß Oberhausen 1–3 Borussia Dortmund ## Model verdict - **Rot-Weiß Oberhausen win:** 15% - **Draw:** 16% - **Borussia Dortmund win:** 70% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Underdog’s rarity vs heavy favourites — numbers point one way ## The stage This is a summer friendly in the Club Friendlies 1 window, kicking off Sat 18 Jul 2026 at 15:00 UTC[^fact-1]. The fixture pairs Rot-Weiß Oberhausen against Borussia Dortmund as part of pre-season preparations rather than a competitive league table test[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model identifies a clear gulf: it gives the home side a 15% chance, a draw 15%, and the away side 70% — a dominant model verdict with a 55 percentage-point gap to the runner-up[^fact-2]. That gap is consistent with the Elo differential, which shows an effective -202-point edge against the home side after applying home advantage[^fact-3]. Recent form data for Borussia Dortmund is strong: seven wins, zero draws and three losses in the last ten outings (7-0-3), producing 2.10 points per game and an attacking/defensive profile of 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. These numbers situate Dortmund as the clear hot side in the build-up[^fact-4]. ## Personnel Attacking rhythm centres on Serhou Guirassy, who has four goals and zero assists in his last five appearances and carries an average rating of 6.99 across that span[^fact-7]. The list of absentees includes a notable defensive loss: Nico Schlotterbeck is out with injury after contributing 900 minutes in the recent run[^fact-8]. Both the form and the injury note point to a side that remains potent up front but is working around a significant defensive miss[^fact-7][^fact-8]. Rot-Weiß Oberhausen is referenced in the comparative metrics but specific personnel details for the home side are not available in the supplied facts[^fact-3]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were analysed against the model[^fact-9]. The model surfaces two principal value ideas. First, the under 2.5 goals line — the model assigns a 54% probability to under 2.5 while the market prices the line at 3.60 on Betfair, creating an edge of 26.6 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-5]. Second, the away match-winner line — the model gives the away win a 79% probability versus a market price of 1.36 on 1xbet, an edge of 5.2 percentage points at mid confidence[^fact-6]. Both edges derive directly from the model’s heavy away lean and the defensive efficiency suggested in recent numbers: Dortmund’s conceded rate of 0.90 goals per match across the sample supports a lower-scoring projection[^fact-4]. The model verdict and odds split underline where disagreement with market prices is largest — the under 2.5 market shows the largest percentage-point edge and the away match-winner is the stronger outright probability call by the model[^fact-2][^fact-5][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly to Borussia Dortmund, assigning the away side a 70% base-case probability while the Elo gap (-202) and Dortmund’s recent 2.10 PPG, 1.90/0.90 goals profile back up that view[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4]. The highest-confidence market edge is under 2.5 goals (model 54% vs Betfair 3.60), followed by a model-favoured away win at 79% against a market price of 1.36[^fact-5][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 18 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 15% / Draw 15% / Away 70% (source: model; confidence high, 55 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Rot-Weiß Oberhausen vs BVB — Elo differential -202 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **BVB recent form** — WWLWL last 10: 7-0-3 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.60 at Betfair, edge 26.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-6]: **Value pick #2** — Away in Match Winner — model 79% vs market price 1.36 at 1xbet, edge 5.2 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **BVB in-form player** — Serhou Guirassy — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.99. [^fact-8]: **BVB key absence** — Nico Schlotterbeck out (injury), 900 minutes in recent run. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .