# Elfsborg vs Sirius > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sun 19 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37090) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Elfsborg 1–3 Sirius ## Model verdict - **Elfsborg win:** 22% - **Draw:** 26% - **Sirius win:** 53% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Away side heavily favoured as form gap widens ## The stage This Allsvenskan meeting kicks off Sun 19 Jul 2026 at 14:30 UTC and lands in the middle of the Swedish summer schedule[^fact-1]. The fixture sits as a league tie with implications only within the domestic table structure outlined by Allsvenskan competition dates[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum The model is clear: the away team carries the advantage in outcome probabilities, with the model assigning Home 22% / Draw 26% / Away 53%[^fact-2]. That projection comes alongside a substantial Elo edge for the visitors — a negative 109-point differential from the home side’s perspective after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent form amplifies that picture. Elfsborg enter on a downwards sequence and low productivity: their 10-match record reads LLDDD (2 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses) and they average 1.10 points per game, scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.20 per match over that span[^fact-4]. Sirius, by contrast, arrive in clearly better shape: their last 10 read WDWWW (8 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses), worth 2.60 points per game, with scoring at 2.80 and concessions at 1.50 per match[^fact-5]. Those two blocks of form and the Elo gap push the model probabilities toward the away side[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Elfsborg’s most notable in-form contributor in recent matches is J. Magnússon, who has provided 0 goals and 2 assists across his last five appearances while carrying an average rating of 7.01[^fact-7]. The club also faces the absence of Marcus Rohdén through injury, a player recently limited to 31 minutes in the club’s most recent run before his absence was recorded[^fact-9]. Sirius’s attacking form is fronted by Robbie Ure, who arrives having scored 8 goals and added 1 assist in his last five appearances, with an average match rating of 8.16 across that sequence[^fact-8]. Sirius will be without August Ljungberg due to injury for this meeting[^fact-10]. The balance of those availability notes and recent output — a high-scoring attacker available for the visitors and an injured midfield figure for the hosts — aligns with the model’s lean toward the away side[^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-2]. ## Where the model sees value Markets were compared across three selections in total against the model’s outputs[^fact-11]. The clearest quantified market edge identified is on the Under 2.5 goals market, where the model assigns a 56% probability to Under while the market price at Unibet is 2.23, producing an 11.0 percentage-point edge in favour of Under (model minus market-implied), described by the model as high confidence[^fact-6]. That is the single highlighted value pick coming out of the model-versus-market comparison[^fact-6][^fact-11]. The matchup context behind that under projection is simple and grounded in the supplied numbers: Elfsborg’s recent matches show very modest scoring and concession parity at 1.20 goals for and 1.20 against per match over the last 10, not a profile that guarantees an open game from the hosts[^fact-4]. Sirius do score more heavily across their form window at 2.80 goals per match, but they also concede at 1.50, which can produce scorelines concentrated in fewer fixtures rather than broadly high totals across every game[^fact-5]. Those contrasting profiles and the model’s explicit probability for Under 2.5 are the basis for the identified edge[^fact-6][^fact-5][^fact-4]. ## Verdict The model leans strongly toward the away side with an Away probability of 53% and a high-confidence 27-percentage-point gap to the next outcome, supported by an Elo deficit for the home side of 109 points and sharply divergent recent form lines[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. The single market inefficiency flagged by the model is Under 2.5 goals, where the model’s 56% view contrasts with the Unibet market price, creating an 11.0 pp edge marked as high confidence[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 19 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 22% / Draw 26% / Away 53% (source: model; confidence high, 27 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ELF vs SIR — Elo differential -109 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ELF recent form** — LLDDD last 10: 2-5-3 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.20 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SIR recent form** — WDWWW last 10: 8-2-0 (W-D-L), 2.60 PPG, 2.80 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 56% vs market price 2.23 at Unibet, edge 11.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **ELF in-form player** — J. Magnússon — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.01. [^fact-8]: **SIR in-form player** — Robbie Ure — 8 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 8.16. [^fact-9]: **ELF key absence** — Marcus Rohdén out (injury), 31 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **SIR key absence** — August Ljungberg out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .