# Hammarby vs Degerfors > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sun 19 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37091) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Hammarby 4–0 Degerfors ## Model verdict - **Hammarby win:** 73% - **Draw:** 18% - **Degerfors win:** 9% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Heavy home edge as Hammarby chase momentum at home ## The stage Sunday afternoon's Allsvenskan meeting kicks off at 14:30 UTC and brings a clear home-favouring profile into focus ahead of the whistle on 19 July 2026[^fact-1]. The fixture sits within a league context that the model reads as strongly skewed to the hosts, creating a mismatch that should shape both approach and expectation[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results underline contrasting trajectories. Hammarby carry a record of W W L L L across their last 10 competitive matches, recorded as 5-2-3 (W-D-L) and delivering 1.70 points per game from that sequence, while scoring 1.70 and conceding 1.10 goals per match in the same sample[^fact-4]. Degerfors arrive on a markedly poorer run — L L D L D in their last 10, a 1-4-5 record that has produced 0.70 points per game, with 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Those recent outputs sit alongside a very large Elo gap once home advantage is applied: Hammarby enjoy a +383 Elo-point edge over Degerfors, a differential that commonly signals one side should expect comfortable control of the match narrative[^fact-3]. The model quantifies that advantage into a clear probability split — Home 73%, Draw 18%, Away 9% — and the confidence in that home lean is substantial, with a 55 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome in the projection[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Paulos Abraham is the in-form attacking presence for Hammarby, contributing 2 goals and 2 assists across his last five appearances while posting an average rating of 7.03 in that window[^fact-7]. For Degerfors, Daniel Sundgren is the most notable recent contributor, with 1 assist in his last four appearances and an average rating of 6.96[^fact-8]. Both teams will be missing a key suspended figure. Hammarby must cope without Victor Eriksson, who provided 898 minutes in the recent run before suspension[^fact-9]. Degerfors will be without Ludvig Fritzson, who logged 877 minutes in the club’s recent run prior to his suspension[^fact-10]. These absences remove minutes and continuity from each side; the balance of replacement options is a relevant variable but falls outside the supplied facts and therefore is not expanded upon here. ## Where the model sees value The model’s principal market edge is around goals interdependence: No for Both Teams to Score is favoured at 69% by the model against a market price of 1.87 on Betfair, producing a 15.3 percentage-point edge versus the market and carrying high confidence in the call[^fact-6]. That outcome is consistent with the model’s broader view — a sizable home probability, the Elo advantage, and Degerfors’ relatively low scoring rate of 0.90 goals per match point toward a match that the hosts can control without an expectation of a high-scoring away contribution[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-2]. The model compared three separate markets to reach these conclusions across the market set analysed; the No BTTS edge is the standout recommendation among those comparisons[^fact-11][^fact-6]. The numerical alignment — home control, lower expected away output, and a clear model-market gap on BTTS — is where the strongest statistical conviction sits. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the hosts: Home 73% in the projection, with a large Elo cushion of +383 points and supporting match-flow indicators from both sides’ recent form, making a controlled Hammarby win the most likely scenario[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. Paulos Abraham’s recent contributions and the opposing suspensions shape personnel narratives, but the primary signal remains the model’s probability split and the No BTTS market edge identified between model and market pricing[^fact-7][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sun 19 Jul 2026, 14:30 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 73% / Draw 18% / Away 9% (source: model; confidence high, 55 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — HAM vs Degerfors — Elo differential +383 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **HAM recent form** — WWLLL last 10: 5-2-3 (W-D-L), 1.70 PPG, 1.70 goals scored / 1.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Degerfors recent form** — LLDLD last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.60 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — No in Both Teams to Score — model 69% vs market price 1.87 at Betfair, edge 15.3 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **HAM in-form player** — Paulos Abraham — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.03. [^fact-8]: **Degerfors in-form player** — Daniel Sundgren — 0 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 6.96. [^fact-9]: **HAM key absence** — Victor Eriksson out (suspension), 898 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Degerfors key absence** — Ludvig Fritzson out (suspension), 877 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .