# Chapecoense vs Flamengo > Serie A · Kickoff Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37095) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Chapecoense 0–4 Flamengo ## Model verdict - **Chapecoense win:** 59% - **Draw:** 17% - **Flamengo win:** 24% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side installed clear favourites despite mixed recent form ## The stage This is a Serie A evening kick-off on Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC; the fixture is scheduled as a home game for Chapecoense in the domestic league[^fact-1]. The model assigns a clear pre-match split with the home side favoured at 59%, the draw at 17% and the away win at 24% — a 35 percentage-point gap between the model favourite and the runner-up, signalling a high-confidence lean from the projection[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent results make the contrast blunt. Chapecoense arrive in a poor run: LLLLD across the last 10 listed results, a 0-2-8 W-D-L line and just 0.20 points per game, with 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Flamengo sit on a markedly stronger sequence: DWLDW in their last 10, a 6-3-1 W-D-L record, 2.10 points per game, scoring 2.00 and conceding 1.00 per match[^fact-5]. Elo points further to the visitors' quality even after home advantage is applied: the matchup shows an Elo differential of +58 points in favour of Chapecoense with home advantage considered[^fact-3]. That number helps explain why the model still makes the home side the pick despite Flamengo's superior recent output; the ratings edge and the home factor are stacked to Chapecoense on paper[^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Chapecoense's attacking form has a single in-form spotlight: Bruno Pacheco, who has registered 0 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances while carrying an average rating of 7.01 in that window[^fact-7]. Flamengo's clear form man is Pedro, with 2 goals and 1 assist across his last four appearances and an average rating of 7.46[^fact-8]. Both sides will be missing key contributors. Chapecoense will be without Anderson due to injury after 540 minutes of involvement in the recent run[^fact-9]. Flamengo must cope without Guillermo Varela, suspended after 540 minutes in the recent sequence[^fact-10]. These absences remove experienced minutes from both squads and are the heaviest short-term personnel changes noted in the data[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Three markets were compared against the model for this match[^fact-11]. The clearest model-market discrepancy flagged is Under 2.5 goals: the model assigns a 54% probability to Under 2.5 while the market price at 1xBet sits at 1.97, producing an edge of 3.6 percentage points according to the model — though that edge is flagged as low confidence[^fact-6]. The model's Under lean fits a matchup where Chapecoense's attacking output is subdued (0.80 goals per match) and Flamengo, despite scoring 2.00 per match recently, concedes only 1.00 per match; combining those rates helps rationalise the model's tilt to fewer total goals[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. No other market edges are provided in the supplied data set, so focus remains on the Under 2.5 divergence and the three markets that were analysed against the model[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side at 59% in a contest that layers Chapecoense's Elo home edge (+58) on top of a troubling recent run for Flamengo's visitors and mixed attacking numbers for both sides; the clearest market discrepancy is the low-confidence model edge on Under 2.5 goals where the model sits at 54% versus a market price of 1.97[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6][^fact-11]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 59% / Draw 17% / Away 24% (source: model; confidence high, 35 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Chapecoense vs FLA — Elo differential +58 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Chapecoense recent form** — LLLLD last 10: 0-2-8 (W-D-L), 0.20 PPG, 0.80 goals scored / 2.00 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FLA recent form** — DWLDW last 10: 6-3-1 (W-D-L), 2.10 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 1.00 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 1.97 at 1xbet, edge 3.6 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **Chapecoense in-form player** — Bruno Pacheco — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.01. [^fact-8]: **FLA in-form player** — Pedro — 2 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.46. [^fact-9]: **Chapecoense key absence** — Anderson out (injury), 540 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **FLA key absence** — Guillermo Varela out (suspension), 540 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .