# New England vs Toronto > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Wed 22 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37109) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** New England 0–0 Toronto ## Model verdict - **New England win:** 34% - **Draw:** 24% - **Toronto win:** 41% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Elo edge and low-scoring profile set the match’s tone ## The stage Wednesday night’s fixture kicks off at 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer, a midweek test with league points on the line[^fact-1]. The model assigns the away side the highest single-outcome probability at 41%, with the home side on 34% and the draw at 24%[^fact-2]. Three markets were analysed against the model for this preview[^fact-11]. ## Form & momentum Recent form separates the teams sharply. The home side’s ten-match sequence reads LWLWW, a 7-1-2 record (W-D-L) that yields 2.20 points per game, with an average of 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. By contrast, the visitors arrive on a DLLLD run, a 1-5-4 record (W-D-L) producing 0.80 points per game and a 1.60 for / 2.10 against goals profile[^fact-5]. The Elo picture, already adjusted for home advantage, gives the home side a +121 differential over their opponents[^fact-3]. Taken together, form and Elo point to the home team having the measurable edge on underlying quality and recent momentum[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Two individual runs stand out for influence on tempo and chance creation. Carles Gil has scored three goals and provided one assist in his last five appearances, carrying an average rating of 7.59 across that sequence[^fact-7]. On the opposition flank, Dániel Sallói arrives with a quieter five-match return — one goal and one assist with an average rating of 6.87[^fact-8]. Availability changes matter: the hosts will be without Luca Langoni due to injury; that player supplied 432 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a chunk of the side’s minutes from the attacking rotation[^fact-9]. The visitors are missing Josh Sargent through injury, a player who logged 403 minutes in the recent run, which subtracts a similar minutes-weighted attacking presence for the away team[^fact-10]. Those absences strip both sides of familiar minutes, but the home side’s underlying metrics suggest greater depth to absorb a single long-minute loss[^fact-4][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market edge in the model’s output is on the Under 2.5 goals line. The model places probability on the Under at 54%, while the market price listed at 10Bet sits at 2.10 decimal; that produces an edge of 6.8 percentage points in favour of the lower-scoring outcome[^fact-6]. This aligns with the home side’s recent defensive solidity — conceding 0.90 goals per match in the last ten — and an overall profile that combines modest scoring with stout defence[^fact-4][^fact-6]. The model’s match probabilities (Home 34% / Draw 24% / Away 41%) reflect the combination of Elo advantage and current form but also indicate a competitive balance that keeps multiple outcomes live[^fact-2][^fact-3]. With three markets compared to the model, the Under 2.5 stands out as the primary actionable discrepancy between market pricing and the model’s view[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans to the away side as the most likely single outcome at 41%, but the substantive signals — a +121 Elo edge for the home side, contrasting recent form, and a defensive home record — coalesce most strongly around a lower-scoring game, where the Under 2.5 has the clearest model-market edge[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-6]. Carles Gil’s recent form and the absences of Luca Langoni and Josh Sargent are the key personnel notes to monitor for how much attacking intent either side can sustain[^fact-7][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Wed 22 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 34% / Draw 24% / Away 41% (source: model; confidence mid, 7 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NER vs TOR — Elo differential +121 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NER recent form** — LWLWW last 10: 7-1-2 (W-D-L), 2.20 PPG, 1.40 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **TOR recent form** — DLLLD last 10: 1-5-4 (W-D-L), 0.80 PPG, 1.60 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.10 at 10Bet, edge 6.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **NER in-form player** — Carles Gil  — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.59. [^fact-8]: **TOR in-form player** — Dániel Sallói — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.87. [^fact-9]: **NER key absence** — Luca Langoni out (injury), 432 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **TOR key absence** — Josh Sargent  out (injury), 403 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .