# Nashville SC vs CF Montréal > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37112) **Status:** Live ## Model verdict - **Nashville SC win:** 52% - **Draw:** 22% - **CF Montréal win:** 27% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.38 | Betfair | 54% | +12.4 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home edge and low-scoring profile tilt the odds toward favourites ## The stage This is a midweek Major League Soccer fixture kicking off Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC[^fact-1]. Nashville SC are the home side[^fact-2] and carry the model’s narrow pre-match advantage: Home 52% / Draw 22% / Away 27%[^fact-2]. The market set-up has been analysed across three markets[^fact-11]. ## Form & momentum Nashville SC arrive on a clear run of form: WWWWD in their last 10 matches, a 7-2-1 record (W-D-L) and 2.30 points per game, with 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per match in that window[^fact-4]. CF Montréal’s recent body of work looks markedly flatter: DDLDW in their last 10, a 3-3-4 record and 1.20 points per game, scoring 1.50 and conceding 1.70 per match over the same sample[^fact-5]. That underlying gap is reflected in Elo terms: the model applies a 159-point edge to Nashville with home advantage factored in[^fact-3]. The Elo differential helps explain why the model gives Nashville the clear lead, and why the two teams project different risk profiles entering the game[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Personnel Nashville’s attacking spark is centered on Warren Madrigal, who has three goals and one assist in his last four appearances, with an average rating of 7.30 in that run[^fact-7]. His recent output is a major reason for Nashville’s elevated goals-per-game in the recent sample[^fact-4][^fact-7]. CF Montréal’s brightest form note comes from Prince Owusu, who has matched Madrigal’s three goals and one assist over his last four appearances and carries an average rating of 7.47 across those games[^fact-8]. That individual output is a clear pocket of threat for Montréal despite the side’s overall lower points-per-game figure[^fact-5][^fact-8]. Availability issues cut into both sides. Nashville will be without Patrick Yazbek through injury; he has logged 189 minutes in the recent run and his absence removes a regular contributor from that sequence[^fact-9]. CF Montréal are missing Olger Escobar to suspension; Escobar accounted for 202 minutes in the same recent sample[^fact-10]. Both absences strip experience or continuity from the respective line-ups and are worth noting for match-level planning[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The clearest market discrepancy flagged by the model is the Under 2.5 goals market. The model prices Under 2.5 at 54% probability versus the Betfair market price of 2.38, producing an edge of 12.4 percentage points (high confidence)[^fact-6]. That projection sits logically alongside Nashville’s defensive solidity in the recent sample (0.90 goals conceded per match) and Montréal’s modest scoring combined with a higher concession rate (1.70 conceded per match)[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6]. Across the three markets analysed, this is the top statistical mismatch between model and market[^fact-11][^fact-6]. The model’s Under bias is consistent with a contest where a narrow home favourite (52%) faces an away side that has struggled to convert its moments into points (27% model chance for the away result)[^fact-2][^fact-5]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side — Nashville — but foresees a contained game rather than a runaway scoreline: Home 52% / Draw 22% / Away 27% and a significant lean toward Under 2.5 goals based on a 54% model probability versus the market price[^fact-2][^fact-6]. The combination of Nashville’s recent defensive stinginess and Montréal’s mixed recent returns frames this as a low-scoring home edge, with key absences on both sides worth tracking to finalise on-gameday plans[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 23 Jul 2026, 00:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 52% / Draw 22% / Away 27% (source: model; confidence high, 25 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — NSH vs CFM — Elo differential +159 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **NSH recent form** — WWWWD last 10: 7-2-1 (W-D-L), 2.30 PPG, 1.90 goals scored / 0.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **CFM recent form** — DDLDW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.38 at Betfair, edge 12.4 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **NSH in-form player** — Warren Madrigal — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.30. [^fact-8]: **CFM in-form player** — Prince Owusu — 3 goals, 1 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.47. [^fact-9]: **NSH key absence** — Patrick Yazbek out (injury), 189 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **CFM key absence** — Olger Escobar out (suspension), 202 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .