# SJ Earthquakes vs Orlando City > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Thu 23 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37118) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** SJ Earthquakes 0–4 Orlando City ## Model verdict - **SJ Earthquakes win:** 42% - **Draw:** 26% - **Orlando City win:** 31% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Hosts hold clear Elo edge; low-scoring game expected ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Thu 23 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC in Major League Soccer.[^fact-1] This fixture sits as a mid-summer league meeting where the model gives the home side the narrowest edge among outcomes — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 31% — with a mid confidence signal and an 11 percentage-point gap to the runner-up outcome.[^fact-2] ## Form & momentum San Jose enter the game with considerably stronger numbers over the recent sample: their last-10 record reads WLLDD (six wins, two draws, two losses), yielding 2.00 points per game and an attacking output of 2.70 goals scored per match while conceding 1.40 per match.[^fact-4] Orlando’s recent sequence is patchier: LDWLW (three wins, two draws, five losses), producing 1.10 points per game with 1.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per match.[^fact-5] Those raw form lines are reinforced by the rating model’s Elo view: with home advantage applied San Jose carry a +133 Elo-point edge over Orlando.[^fact-3] The combination of superior recent scoring, better defensive numbers and a large Elo differential frames San Jose as the team on the front foot in momentum terms.[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5] ## Personnel San Jose’s in-form attacking focal point is Preston Judd — five goals and zero assists in his last five appearances, averaging a 7.43 match rating across that run.[^fact-7] That scoring spike is a clear reason San Jose’s goals-per-game number is elevated in the recent sample.[^fact-4][^fact-7] Orlando counter with Martín Ojeda in form: seven goals and zero assists in his last five appearances, with an average rating of 7.58 over that sequence.[^fact-8] Ojeda’s scoring streak drives Orlando’s offensive hope despite the club’s wider defensive problems reflected in 2.70 goals conceded per match recently.[^fact-5][^fact-8] Availability notes cut both ways. San Jose will be without Niko Tsakiris through injury after 278 minutes in the recent run.[^fact-9] Orlando will be missing Joran Gerbet with an unspecified injury absence.[^fact-10] Those absences matter to each side’s rotation choices, but the facts do not provide further detail on replacements or system changes.[^fact-9][^fact-10] ## Where the model sees value The model flags a single clear market inefficiency with strong confidence: Under 2.5 goals has a 54% model probability versus a market price of 3.40 at Betfair, producing an edge of 25.0 percentage points and a high-confidence signal.[^fact-6] This dovetails with the defensive warning signs in Orlando’s recent record (2.70 conceded per match) paired with San Jose’s slightly more balanced conceded rate (1.40 per match) that still sits below their scoring rate — put differently, the match profile supports a tighter scoring outcome despite San Jose’s attacking form.[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-6] The model compared three markets against the market and surfaced this as the top edge among them.[^fact-11][^fact-6] ## Verdict The model leans to the home side but not overwhelmingly: Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 31%, reflecting San Jose’s sizable Elo advantage (+133) and stronger recent points and goals profile while still acknowledging Orlando’s dangerous in-form goalscorer.[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-8] On balance the cleanest statistical insight is toward a lower-scoring contest — the model’s Under 2.5 signal stands as the clearest value mismatch versus the market, supported by the match-by-match goal rates and the confidence flagged by the model.[^fact-6][^fact-4][^fact-5] ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Thu 23 Jul 2026, 02:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 42% / Draw 26% / Away 31% (source: model; confidence mid, 11 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — SJE vs ORL — Elo differential +133 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **SJE recent form** — WLLDD last 10: 6-2-2 (W-D-L), 2.00 PPG, 2.70 goals scored / 1.40 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **ORL recent form** — LDWLW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.80 goals scored / 2.70 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 3.40 at Betfair, edge 25.0 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **SJE in-form player** — Preston Judd — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.43. [^fact-8]: **ORL in-form player** — Martín Ojeda — 7 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.58. [^fact-9]: **SJE key absence** — Niko Tsakiris out (injury), 278 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **ORL key absence** — Joran Gerbet  out (injury). [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .