# Santos vs Chapecoense > Serie A · Kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 21:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37129) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Santos win:** 61% - **Draw:** 21% - **Chapecoense win:** 18% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | totals | Under | 2.21 | 1xbet | 54% | +9.1 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Santos hold clear edge as Chapecoense slump continues ## The stage This is a league fixture in Brazil's Serie A with kickoff on Sat 25 Jul 2026, 21:30 UTC; the match sits squarely in the middle of a congested domestic calendar and will be contested under standard league conditions[^fact-1]. The model places a clear home advantage in the outcome probabilities, viewing the home side as the most likely winner[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Recent form separates the teams decisively. Santos arrive with a mixed sequence of results recorded as LWLLW over the last 10 outings, translating to a 3-2-5 (W-D-L) split and 1.10 points per game; they have averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match in that run[^fact-4]. Chapecoense, by contrast, are in a prolonged slump: LLLLL across the same sample, 0-1-9 (W-D-L), 0.10 points per game, scoring 0.70 goals while conceding 2.30 on average[^fact-5]. The model's underlying strength indicator echoes the form gap: Santos carry an Elo differential advantage of +150 points after applying home advantage, a margin that is substantial in Elo terms and corroborates the recent trendlines[^fact-3]. The model-level verdict quantifies that advantage as Home 61% / Draw 21% / Away 18%, with a high-confidence spread between the favorite and the runner-up[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Two in-form attacking contributors are worth flagging. Santos' Miguelito has produced 1 goal and 2 assists in his last 4 appearances and holds an average match rating of 7.37 in that span[^fact-7]. Chapecoense's most notable recent attacking contribution comes from Bruno Pacheco, who has 0 goals and 2 assists in his last 5 appearances with an average rating of 6.77[^fact-8]. Availability issues are notable for both sides. Santos will be without Gabriel Brazão through injury; he accumulated 540 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-9]. Chapecoense are missing Doma to injury as well; Doma accounted for 563 minutes in the recent sequence prior to being ruled out[^fact-10]. These absences remove continuity from each team’s recent match rhythms and should be factored into expectations for cohesion on the day[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value Markets analysed: 3 in total were compared against the model[^fact-11]. The clearest market edge is on the Under 2.5 goals line. The model assigns a 54% probability to Under 2.5 while the market price at the referenced bookmaker sits at 2.21, yielding an edge of 9.1 percentage points in the model's view (high confidence)[^fact-6]. That projection is consistent with both teams' recent scoring and conceding profiles: Santos' 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match in the recent sample and Chapecoense's low output of 0.70 goals while conceding 2.30 make a lower-goal outcome plausible on balance[^fact-4][^fact-5]. No other market edges are reported in the provided facts, so the Under 2.5 recommendation stands out as the single, model-backed mismatch between probability and market price among the three markets examined[^fact-6][^fact-11]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively toward the home side — Santos — on the back of a +150 Elo edge and the 61% model probability, while Chapecoense’s form and defensive fragility leave them short of realistic recovery expectations in the immediate term[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-5]. The clearest market inefficiency identified is Under 2.5 goals, where the model sees a 54% chance against the market quote and reports a 9.1 percentage-point edge with high confidence[^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 25 Jul 2026, 21:30 UTC — Serie A [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 61% / Draw 21% / Away 18% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — STS vs Chapecoense — Elo differential +150 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **STS recent form** — LWLLW last 10: 3-2-5 (W-D-L), 1.10 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **Chapecoense recent form** — LLLLL last 10: 0-1-9 (W-D-L), 0.10 PPG, 0.70 goals scored / 2.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.21 at 1xbet, edge 9.1 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **STS in-form player** — Miguelito — 1 goals, 2 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.37. [^fact-8]: **Chapecoense in-form player** — Bruno Pacheco — 0 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.77. [^fact-9]: **STS key absence** — Gabriel Brazão out (injury), 540 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **Chapecoense key absence** — Doma out (injury), 563 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .