# Liverpool vs Sunderland > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37132) **Status:** Scheduled ## Model verdict - **Liverpool win:** 61% - **Draw:** 19% - **Sunderland win:** 20% - **Source:** model ## Top published picks | Market | Selection | Best odds | Bookmaker | Model % | Edge | | --- | --- | ---: | --- | ---: | ---: | | h2h | Home | 1.51 | Dafabet | 73% | +6.8 pp | ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model backs home edge despite friendly status and absences ## The stage This is a summer club friendly scheduled for kickoff on Sat 25 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC as part of Club Friendlies 1[^fact-1]. The fixture exists primarily for conditioning and tactical work rather than competitive points, but the result still offers an early gauge of readiness for both sides[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum On raw model probabilities the home side carries a clear edge: Home 61% / Draw 19% / Away 20% according to the model, with a reported 41 percentage-point gap to the runner-up and high confidence[^fact-2]. That aligns with the sizeable Elo differential: Liverpool hold an Elo advantage of +223 points after home advantage is applied[^fact-3]. Recent match form over the last 10 for Liverpool reads DLDLW — three wins, three draws and four losses — translating to 1.20 points per game, with an average of 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Sunderland’s last-10 sequence is WWDDL — four wins, two draws and four losses — giving them 1.40 points per game, with 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per match[^fact-5]. That suggests Liverpool are superior on Elo and model projection[^fact-3][^fact-2], while Sunderland arrive with marginally better recent points yield and a slightly tighter goals balance in their last 10 outings[^fact-5]. ## Personnel Liverpool’s in-form attacking fulcrum in this run is Dominik Szoboszlai, who has 1 goal and 3 assists in his last 5 appearances and an average match rating of 7.50[^fact-7]. For Sunderland the standout recent performer is Enzo Le Fée, with 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.47[^fact-8]. On absences, Liverpool will be missing Florian Wirtz due to injury; Wirtz accounted for 595 minutes in the recent run prior to this absence[^fact-9]. Sunderland’s notable absence is Granit Xhaka, also out with injury after contributing 817 minutes in the recent run[^fact-10]. Both absences remove players who logged substantial minutes in recent matches, meaning rotations and minutes redistribution should be expected for both squads[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies a clear single-market edge: backing the home match winner shows a model probability of 73% against a market price of 1.51 at Dafabet, producing an edge of 6.8 percentage points with mid confidence[^fact-6]. That market comparison is one of three markets analysed against the model on this ticket of work[^fact-11][^fact-6]. This value signal sits logically with the model’s broader verdict (Home 61% / Draw 19% / Away 20) and the +223 Elo cushion for the home side[^fact-2][^fact-3]. The specific market price listed (1.51) implies a market-implied probability materially lower than the model’s match-winner estimate for the home side, which is why the item registers as a top pick for value[^fact-6][^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model leans firmly toward the home outcome, giving the home side the primary probability mass and identifying the home match-winner as the clearest value against the market on the board, while acknowledging both teams carry recent minutes lost through key injuries and that Sunderland’s recent points-per-game is slightly higher across their last 10 matches[^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-9][^fact-10][^fact-5]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 25 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 61% / Draw 19% / Away 20% (source: model; confidence high, 41 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LIV vs SUN — Elo differential +223 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LIV recent form** — DLDLW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SUN recent form** — WWDDL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 73% vs market price 1.51 at Dafabet, edge 6.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **LIV in-form player** — Dominik Szoboszlai — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.50. [^fact-8]: **SUN in-form player** — Enzo Le Fée — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.47. [^fact-9]: **LIV key absence** — Florian Wirtz out (injury), 595 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **SUN key absence** — Granit Xhaka out (injury), 817 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .