# Liverpool vs Sunderland > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37132) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Liverpool 4–2 Sunderland ## Model verdict - **Liverpool win:** 60% - **Draw:** 20% - **Sunderland win:** 20% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily to the home side on form and ratings ## The stage A mid-summer tune-up with competitive edges: kickoff is scheduled for Sat 25 Jul 2026 at 22:00 UTC in Club Friendlies 1[^fact-1]. The fixture is a single-match friendly that offers sharp minutes for starters and trial ground for tactical tweaks, but the pre-match numbers already paint a clear picture[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum On balance, the model gives a strong home lean — Home 60% / Draw 20% / Away 20% — with a high-confidence separation to the runner-up and a 40 percentage-point gap to the next option[^fact-2]. That probabilistic tilt is supported by an Elo edge: Liverpool carry an adjusted advantage of +223 Elo points with home advantage applied[^fact-3]. Recent competitive form is mixed for both sides. Liverpool’s 10-match string reads DLDLW (3 wins, 3 draws, 4 defeats) and translates to 1.20 points per game, with 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Sunderland arrive with a superficially better recent return: WWDDL (4 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats), 1.40 points per game, scoring 1.20 and conceding 1.50 per match[^fact-5]. The comparison shows Sunderland slightly higher on points per match but Liverpool substantially superior on Elo, which tilts expectations in favour of the home side[^fact-3][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Personnel Form players who will shape the tempo: Dominik Szoboszlai has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists in his last five appearances, averaging a match rating of 7.50[^fact-7]. Enzo Le Fée is Sunderland’s most noticeable recent influence with 1 goal, 1 assist and an average rating of 7.47 across his last five outings[^fact-8]. Those are the clearest attacking fulcrums identified by the model for each side[^fact-7][^fact-8]. Each team is missing a midfield regular. Liverpool will be without Florian Wirtz due to injury; Wirtz supplied 595 minutes in the recent run before his absence[^fact-9]. Sunderland are without Granit Xhaka, who logged 817 minutes in the same recent window prior to withdrawal with injury[^fact-10]. The two absences remove significant minutes from each side and should shape selection and rotation decisions[^fact-9][^fact-10]. ## Where the model sees value The model’s primary market edge appears on the home Match Winner line. The model probability for home is 73% against a market price implying a lower chance (1.51 at Dafabet), producing an edge of 6.8 percentage points with mid confidence[^fact-6]. That single comparison is one of three markets analysed against the model’s view in this build-up[^fact-11][^fact-6]. Framing that edge: the model’s broader probabilities (Home 60%/Draw 20%/Away 20%) and the 73% specific match-winner probability used against the bookmaker price form the arithmetic backbone of the identified value[^fact-2][^fact-6]. The market comparison set in the briefing consists of three markets, of which the home match-winner selection was highlighted for a measurable gap[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The balance of evidence favours the home side: a decisive Elo advantage of +223 points with home applied, a model that assigns 60% to a home result and a focused match-winner edge identified versus market pricing — even accounting for Liverpool’s mixed recent results and the absence of Florian Wirtz; Sunderland bring better recent points per game and their own absences, but the Elo and model tilt remain with the hosts[^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6][^fact-4][^fact-9][^fact-5][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 25 Jul 2026, 22:00 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 60% / Draw 20% / Away 20% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — LIV vs SUN — Elo differential +223 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **LIV recent form** — DLDLW last 10: 3-3-4 (W-D-L), 1.20 PPG, 1.50 goals scored / 1.80 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **SUN recent form** — WWDDL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 1.20 goals scored / 1.50 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Home in Match Winner — model 73% vs market price 1.51 at Dafabet, edge 6.8 pp (mid confidence). [^fact-7]: **LIV in-form player** — Dominik Szoboszlai — 1 goals, 3 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.50. [^fact-8]: **SUN in-form player** — Enzo Le Fée — 1 goals, 1 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.47. [^fact-9]: **LIV key absence** — Florian Wirtz out (injury), 595 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **SUN key absence** — Granit Xhaka out (injury), 817 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .