# Degerfors vs Djurgården > Allsvenskan · Kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37133) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Degerfors 0–1 Djurgården ## Model verdict - **Degerfors win:** 21% - **Draw:** 18% - **Djurgården win:** 61% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Model leans heavily to the away side; goals look likely ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 25 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC in an Allsvenskan fixture[^fact-1]. The match represents a clear test between a home side on the back foot and an away team that the model rates far superior[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Form & momentum Degerfors arrive with a stuttering run: LLLDL across their last 10 results, recorded as 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses, worth 0.70 points per game on average; their attack is producing 0.90 goals per match while conceding 1.90[^fact-4]. Djurgården’s recent sequence reads DWWLL in the same window, listed as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, generating 1.40 points per game on average; their forward line is averaging 2.20 goals per match while the defence concedes 1.30[^fact-5]. The raw matchup indicator tilts strongly to the visitors: the Elo differential, with home advantage applied, is -144 in Degerfors’ favour — a substantive edge for Djurgården by that metric[^fact-3]. The model’s probabilistic verdict amplifies that gap: Home 21% / Draw 18% / Away 61%, with high confidence and a 40 percentage-point gap to the runner-up probability[^fact-2]. Put simply, form numbers and model ranking both favour the away side while Degerfors’ defensive fragility stands out in contrast to Djurgården’s more potent attack[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2]. ## Personnel Degerfors’ in-form indicator highlights Matvei Igonen, whose last five appearances show 0 goals and 0 assists with an average match rating of 6.85[^fact-7]. That profile suggests limited attacking influence from the named in-form player, while the team’s overall goals scored per match remains under one[^fact-7][^fact-4]. Djurgården’s key form figure listed is B. Hegland, producing 2 goals and 2 assists in his last five appearances with an average rating of 7.15[^fact-8]. That contribution aligns with Djurgården’s higher goals-per-game figure and helps explain the model’s preference for the away side[^fact-8][^fact-5]. No other named personnel or absences were supplied in the facts, so selection nuances and tactical tweaks must be read through the lens of those two spotlighted profiles and the teams’ attacking/defensive aggregate numbers[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-4][^fact-5]. ## Where the model sees value Three market lines were analysed against the model[^fact-9]. The clearest edge is on total goals: the model puts Over 2.5 at 71% probability versus a market price of 1.75 at Pinnacle, an estimated edge of 13.9 percentage points and classified with high confidence[^fact-6][^fact-9]. That line trades off two connected inputs: Djurgården’s 2.20 goals scored per match and Degerfors’ 1.90 conceded per match, which together point to a fixture prone to multiple opportunities[^fact-5][^fact-4]. The model’s three-way outcome split — Home 21% / Draw 18% / Away 61% — also constitutes an analytical anchor when assessing odds across match markets, with a dominant lean toward the away win by a clear margin[^fact-2]. Meanwhile the Elo gap of -144 reinforces the match-up imbalance that underpins both the outright and objective goals projection[^fact-3]. ## Verdict The model leans decisively to the away side: Djurgården is the clear pick in outcome probability, with a 61% chance on the model’s scale while Degerfors sit at 21% and the draw at 18%[^fact-2]. The strongest market inefficiency identified is Over 2.5 goals, where the model’s 71% probability contrasts with Pinnacle’s 1.75 price, an edge of 13.9 percentage points and high confidence[^fact-6]. Given Degerfors’ low scoring and higher concession rate alongside Djurgården’s better scoring output and the -144 Elo gap, expect a fixture that favours the away side and is tilted toward multiple goals[^fact-4][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-2][^fact-6]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 25 Jul 2026, 13:00 UTC — Allsvenskan [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 21% / Draw 18% / Away 61% (source: model; confidence high, 40 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Degerfors vs DJU — Elo differential -144 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Degerfors recent form** — LLLDL last 10: 1-4-5 (W-D-L), 0.70 PPG, 0.90 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **DJU recent form** — DWWLL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Over in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 71% vs market price 1.75 at Pinnacle, edge 13.9 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **Degerfors in-form player** — Matvei Igonen — 0 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 6.85. [^fact-8]: **DJU in-form player** — B. Hegland — 2 goals, 2 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.15. [^fact-9]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .