# Wehen Wiesbaden vs FC Bayern München > Club Friendlies 1 · Kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 13:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37134) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Wehen Wiesbaden 2–1 FC Bayern München ## Model verdict - **Wehen Wiesbaden win:** 11% - **Draw:** 13% - **FC Bayern München win:** 75% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Bayern overwhelming favourites as friendly offers tune‑up test ## The stage This is a mid‑summer club friendly with competitive sting limited to preparation: kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 13:30 UTC in the Club Friendlies 1 calendar slot[^fact-1]. The fixture functions as a sharp practice run rather than a points battle; the model treats it accordingly in its probability split[^fact-2]. ## Form & momentum Form lines point emphatically towards the visitors. Wehen Wiesbaden arrive on a 1-2-7 (W‑D‑L) record from their last 10, averaging 0.50 points per game with 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Bayern’s recent run is the mirror image: 8-2-0 (W‑D‑L) over their last 10, producing 2.60 points per game and a 3.40/1.30 goals for/against ratio[^fact-5]. The model’s output reflects that gap, assigning an 82% probability to an away win versus 8% for the home side and 10% for a draw, with a high confidence margin (72 percentage points) to the runner‑up outcome[^fact-2]. That statistical distance is underpinned by an Elo differential of minus 505 in Bayern’s favour even after adjusting for home advantage[^fact-3]. ## Personnel Spotlight players on current form for each side are clear. For Wehen Wiesbaden, Ivan Prtajin has three goals and no assists in his last five appearances, posting an average rating of 7.19 across that run[^fact-7]. For Bayern, Harry Kane brings five goals and no assists in his last five outings, with a slightly higher mean rating of 7.42 over the same span[^fact-8]. The match will also be influenced by notable absences. Wehen will be missing Nikolas Agrafiotis through injury; he logged 283 minutes in the recent run before that absence[^fact-9]. Bayern are without Jamal Musiala, injured after accumulating 470 minutes in the recent sequence[^fact-10]. Those absences remove specific minutes‑played inputs from each side’s recent form but do not alter the large pre‑match gap the model records[^fact-2][^fact-3]. ## Where the model sees value The model identifies a clear market edge on the away match‑winner price. Model probability for an away win sits at 76% when compared directly to one market price listed at 1.38 on bet365, yielding an edge of 3.2 percentage points (the model flags that particular edge as low confidence)[^fact-6]. Across the markets analysed, three different market prices were compared against the model’s internal probabilities[^fact-11]. The broader model verdict — 82% for the away side — already embeds those market checks and a high confidence gap to the runner‑up outcome[^fact-2]. ## Verdict The model’s lean is decisive: Bayern are heavy favourites with an 82% chance to win, a 505‑point Elo edge even accounting for home advantage, and a dominant recent form profile relative to Wehen Wiesbaden[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-4]. With in‑form finishers on both sides and key creative absences noted, this is best read as a high‑probability tune‑up for the visitors rather than a finely balanced contest[^fact-7][^fact-8][^fact-9][^fact-10]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 25 Jul 2026, 13:30 UTC — Club Friendlies 1 [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 8% / Draw 10% / Away 82% (source: model; confidence high, 72 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — Wehen Wiesbaden vs FCB — Elo differential -505 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **Wehen Wiesbaden recent form** — LLLDL last 10: 1-2-7 (W-D-L), 0.50 PPG, 1.00 goals scored / 1.90 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **FCB recent form** — WWDWW last 10: 8-2-0 (W-D-L), 2.60 PPG, 3.40 goals scored / 1.30 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Away in Match Winner — model 76% vs market price 1.38 at bet365, edge 3.2 pp (low confidence). [^fact-7]: **Wehen Wiesbaden in-form player** — Ivan Prtajin — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.19. [^fact-8]: **FCB in-form player** — Harry Kane  — 5 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.42. [^fact-9]: **Wehen Wiesbaden key absence** — Nikolas Agrafiotis out (injury), 283 minutes in recent run. [^fact-10]: **FCB key absence** — Jamal Musiala out (injury), 470 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .