# Orlando City vs Nashville SC > Major League Soccer · Kickoff Sat 25 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC · [Canonical HTML](https://betsprinter.com/fixtures/37140) **Status:** Finished **Final score:** Orlando City 1–0 Nashville SC ## Model verdict - **Orlando City win:** 51% - **Draw:** 29% - **Nashville SC win:** 19% - **Source:** model ## Pre-match deep dive ### Home side slight favourites despite visitors' red-hot run ## The stage Kickoff is scheduled for Sat 25 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC in Major League Soccer[^fact-1]. This fixture lands in the middle of a congested summer window; the immediate competitive implication is decided on the points available in a single regular-season meeting[^fact-1]. ## Form & momentum Recent form tells two different stories. Orlando City arrive with a mixed set of results: WLDWL in their last 10 matches, a record the model summarises as 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses, producing 1.40 points per game with 2.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per match[^fact-4]. Nashville, by contrast, are on a tilt: their last 10 read WWWWW in the condensed summary 8-2-0 (W-D-L) and translate to 2.60 points per game with 2.00 goals scored and just 0.80 conceded per match[^fact-5]. Underlying ratings also diverge. The model applies a home-adjusted Elo differential of +74 in favour of Orlando City[^fact-3], a material edge that helps explain why the model places the home side ahead despite Nashville’s recent tear[^fact-3][^fact-5]. The model’s probability split is Home 51% / Draw 29% / Away 19%, a clear lean to the hosts with high confidence — the favorite sits 22 percentage points clear of the runner-up in the model’s ranking[^fact-2]. ## Personnel Orlando’s most in-form attacking trigger is Martín Ojeda, who has 4 goals and 0 assists in his last 4 appearances and carries an average rating of 7.22 over that run[^fact-7]. The side will be without Joran Gerbet due to injury, a named absence the squad must work around[^fact-9]. Nashville’s key attacking outlet remains Hany Mukhtar, who has 3 goals and 0 assists in his last 5 appearances and an average rating of 7.39 over that span[^fact-8]. The visitors will be missing Sam Surridge through injury; Surridge logged 243 minutes in the recent run prior to his absence[^fact-10]. Those personnel notes underline a roster trade-off: Nashville have elite form from Mukhtar and a compact defensive record, while Orlando retain home-Elo advantage but show more volatility in results and goals conceded[^fact-8][^fact-5][^fact-3][^fact-4]. ## Where the model sees value Across three markets analysed against the market, the model highlights specific edges where probability and price diverge[^fact-11]. The clearest standalone value is the Under 2.5 goals market: the model assigns a 54% probability to Under 2.5, while the market price on Betfair is 2.45, representing a model-market edge of 13.6 percentage points and flagged with high confidence[^fact-6][^fact-11]. Given Nashville’s stingy recent defensive record (0.80 goals conceded per match in the sample) and Orlando’s mixed defensive form (2.10 conceded per match), the numbers in the dataset push the model toward expecting fewer goals than the market currently discounts[^fact-5][^fact-4][^fact-6]. That Under 2.5 edge sits alongside the model’s primary match probability: a home lean at 51% with a sizeable gap to the next outcome, which indicates the model expects Orlando’s home advantage and Elo buffer to hold sway in a tight, low-scoring game[^fact-2][^fact-3][^fact-6]. The model compared three markets to arrive at these conclusions, with the Under 2.5 pick emerging as the strongest single-market discrepancy against current pricing[^fact-11][^fact-6]. ## Verdict The model leans to the home side (51% probability) while forecasting a disciplined, low-goal contest — the Under 2.5 market shows the most explicit value against the market at a 54% model probability versus the Betfair price, an edge of 13.6 percentage points[^fact-2][^fact-6]. Orlando’s +74 home-adjusted Elo helps explain the home lean even as Nashville bring superior recent form and defensive solidity, and the contrast between those signals is the defining storyline heading into kickoff on Sat 25 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC[^fact-3][^fact-5][^fact-1]. ### Cited facts [^fact-1]: **Kickoff** — Sat 25 Jul 2026, 23:30 UTC — Major League Soccer [^fact-2]: **Model verdict** — Home 51% / Draw 29% / Away 19% (source: model; confidence high, 22 pp gap to runner-up). [^fact-3]: **Elo edge** — ORL vs NSH — Elo differential +74 points (with home advantage applied). [^fact-4]: **ORL recent form** — WLDWL last 10: 4-2-4 (W-D-L), 1.40 PPG, 2.20 goals scored / 2.10 conceded per match. [^fact-5]: **NSH recent form** — WWWWW last 10: 8-2-0 (W-D-L), 2.60 PPG, 2.00 goals scored / 0.80 conceded per match. [^fact-6]: **Value pick #1** — Under in Goals O/U 2.5 — model 54% vs market price 2.45 at Betfair, edge 13.6 pp (high confidence). [^fact-7]: **ORL in-form player** — Martín Ojeda — 4 goals, 0 assists in last 4 appearances, avg rating 7.22. [^fact-8]: **NSH in-form player** — Hany Mukhtar — 3 goals, 0 assists in last 5 appearances, avg rating 7.39. [^fact-9]: **ORL key absence** — Joran Gerbet  out (injury). [^fact-10]: **NSH key absence** — Sam Surridge out (injury), 243 minutes in recent run. [^fact-11]: **Markets analysed** — 3 market(s) compared against the model. --- Methodology: . Canonical HTML: .